By Bill Turque
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, December 15, 2005; B08
Montgomery and Fairfax counties will have to rethink land-use policies to provide housing for tens of thousands of workers projected to fill new jobs in the area over the next 25 years, according to a new report.
In its latest round of regional growth forecasts, the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments said that while the area's economy will generate about 1.6 million new jobs by 2030, current building patterns would leave a shortage of about 92,000 homes.
COG, composed of representatives from the area's local governments, studies regional issues such as transportation, housing and population. It issues periodic reports based on data provided by member jurisdictions.
This latest, called "Round 7.0," predicts that the region's population will grow by about 2 million over the next quarter century, reaching 6.6 million by 2030.
Housing supply has lagged behind job creation in the region. In Fairfax, for example, the number of jobs rose from 404,000 to 533,000 during the 1990s, according to county figures, while the home supply increased by less than half that amount.
If left unaddressed, planners say, the shortfall will push workers deeper into outer suburbs. Their commutes will be longer, traffic will be heavier, and pollution will increase.
"This is not a trivial matter," said Gerald E. Connolly (D), chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. "If we insist on doing things the way we've been doing them, we're going to force more growth into the outer suburbs."
However, changing land-use rules to accommodate more housing in the suburbs, as COG's report recommends, can prove dicey politically.
This year, Fairfax County amended its planning blueprint to allow denser development near the Vienna Metro stop. Next month, the Board of Supervisors will consider a proposal from Pulte Homes to build a cluster of mid-rises on 56 acres at the station. The project, which would ultimately comprise 13 residential, office and retail towers, including 2,250 homes, has generated intense opposition among neighbors.
Most of the new jobs the council predicts will come to the area would be in fields such as engineering, data processing, business services and medical research. But the report calls the numbers projections and points out that economic and market conditions can change. COG's data include part-time jobs, consulting jobs and positions not covered by unemployment insurance.
The supply of housing is an issue throughout the region, particularly in Montgomery and Fairfax. Both jurisdictions are looking at expanding programs to support so-called "workforce housing," aimed at residents whose incomes are too high to qualify for traditional housing assistance but who lack the means to buy a home in today's hot real estate market.
Staff writer Lisa Rein contributed to this article.
