Agents Aplenty

Stokes, who has been an agent for a year, operates in her own Northwest Washington neighborhood of Glover Park, which is well covered by established real estate agents. But she doesn't think "any agent has a total lock on a neighborhood" and that creativity can sometimes trump budgetary strength.

Stokes got her name out in front of the public by putting together a tour of renovated properties in the neighborhood and charging $10 a ticket to benefit the local school's PTA. "It was certainly a way for me to meet potential sellers and potential buyers," but it also was a way to contribute to Stoddert Elementary School, she said. The tour sold 250 tickets for a $2,500 donation.

If Stokes, 26, seems way ahead of the game, it may be because she is the daughter of a real estate broker and a high-end custom builder in South Florida. A 2001 graduate of George Washington University, she knew one important thing about her neighborhood: "So many of my clients buy with an eye to renovation."

Stokes has closed 13 deals worth about $5.4 million and expects to close the 14th next week. But she has not captured any of her own listings -- listings are when a seller signs a contract with you to sell your house, and they are hard to get without a large referral base. Nonetheless, Stokes says, "some are in the works."

At $5.4 million, Stokes is doing much better than the average agent, not just the average rookie. According to the National Association of Realtors, the typical sales member in 2004 was involved in 12 transaction sides on behalf of the buyer or seller. The median sales or leasing volume was $2.2 million in 2004, up from $1.8 million in 2002.

Upon his return to Washington, Finch teamed immediately with three-year veteran Long & Foster agent Frank Griffin and set up offices not only in the Northwest Washington neighborhood of Friendship Heights but also in Fells Point, a hot Baltimore area. He also created a development company with another partner, specializing in renovating Baltimore properties.

Finch focuses on first-time buyers, a natural fit since they haven't already forged a relationship with an agent.

Finch and Griffin have had about 50 closings in the Washington area, including 40 this year worth a total of more than $11 million. But they've each had only about four listings this year.

Focusing on first-timers may be a natural, but it was no fun when the market was hot. Although listing agents will capture part of the sales commission no matter who buys the house, the reality for many agents working with potential buyers was that they spent a lot of unpaid time schlepping unsuccessful bidders from property to property.

While hot and cold markets are equally challenging for a rookie, as the inventory of houses has climbed in the past few months, selling agents have become more challenged. They've had to go back to holding open houses on weekends and strategizing with clients about why properties aren't selling and how best to advertise.

GCAAR's Haskins said new agents must understand that business costs stay the same no matter the market. "It costs about $1,000 to get started, for fees and dues and that kind of thing," she said. "And you should expect to spend about 10 to 20 percent of your income on marketing. Of course, in the beginning you don't have any income. So you should make sure you have about six to nine months of money to live off of."

And a slowing of the market could have big consequences. When the housing market slumped the last time, about 20,000 salespeople and brokers in Maryland jumped ship from 1990 to 2000, regulators said.

Craig Cheatham, chief executive of the Association of Real Estate License Law Officials, said, "I think by now that, with the number of people who are out there in real estate, there are a lot of people who are not making money."

But the NAR says its surveys show that real estate never has been "something you get rich quick in," said spokesman Walter Molony. In its latest survey, in August, those in the business for two years or less earned only $12,850. However, for those with more experience, the past two years were very good. Those with six to 10 years' experience earned a median $58,700, up 18.6 percent from 2002. Those who had at least 26 years earned $92,600, up 37.2 percent.

Laura Culbreth, who got her District license in January, said she has found the local market to be "definitely tough."

Culbreth, 29, who moved to Washington from San Francisco in December, said she decided to try real estate after working with developers in California and because a Washington friend, a mortgage broker, had told her the market was "really hot" here.

She started early this year with a discount brokerage but last month joined the Tom Murphy Long & Foster team in Foggy Bottom. Being part of a team can mean a lot to a newcomer: Manning the telephones on an office rotation, taking calls from strangers looking for a real estate agent, a rookie has a chance to grab a listing or at least a willing buyer.

At the discount brokerage, Culbreth had six listings and seven sales, all in the District, worth more than $5 million; since starting with Murphy, she has snagged one listing, for a building lot on W Street NW, with no sales so far.

Nonetheless, she said, "Now that the market has changed and properties are sitting longer, full service is really the way to go."

Coattails are key for new agents, say those who have seen real estate cycles come and go. "It's very tough to be a new agent in this environment," said Murphy. "Two-thirds of the business is people coming back to you, and a new agent doesn't have that."

Some beginners have already bailed, said Murphy, "and there will be a lot more because it's going to be tougher and tougher. . . . The ones who are surviving are the ones who are associated with a team, or with senior agents, where they have this flowback and they can't handle it all."

If a hot market was tough on newcomers, a possible cooling-off period promises to be just as unwelcoming.

New agents aren't used to sellers being angry because their houses don't sell, even if the reason is that they've priced the property too high, said Tracy Pless, chairman of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. "They've never gone through a market like that."

And rookie agent Finch warns those just starting out to be prepared: "It's not going to be a walk in the park. . . . Those days are gone."