In D.C., Baseball as a Political Football

The council already voted to build a stadium, last year, and said the District would issue $535 million in bonds to pay for it. But the scorekeepers objected. Natwar Gandhi, the independent chief financial officer, put the real cost for a South Capitol stadium at $667 million, including financing, upgrades to RFK Stadium (where the Nationals will play in the coming season), a parking garage and various other infrastructure improvements. Other estimates of the cost are higher than $700 million, and critics of the deal say it could wind up being a billion-dollar boondoggle.

So the council may pull a John Kerry and vote against a stadium it already voted for. Almost everyone on the council is running for something next year, but it's not obvious what's the best political play. Depends on the constituency. Carol Schwartz is a crucial swing vote, and she voted no last time, a year ago, when the stadium plan was first approved by a council that included several members at the end of their terms. But it's easier to vote no when something is going to pass either way. To grasp the subtleties of this situation, you'd need to be a game theorist, someone who understands things like the Deadline Effect and the Prisoner's Dilemma.

"You have an immovable object against an infinite power. They both have ultimate say. Who wins in that stare-down? I dunno," said Jeff Neal, co-founder of Monument Realty, a major landholder in the stadium area.

There are those on the council and in the community who want to build a stadium on federal parkland next to RFK Stadium, which, the CFO's office said, would cost less money. But Major League Baseball has said that's unacceptable. The District would have to dicker with the federal government over the use of that land. And the mayor and his business allies say the RFK site would never spawn the kind of commercial and entertainment district (and associated tax revenue) they envision. Look at RFK now: It stands alone, surrounded by parking lots and residential neighborhoods.

But some council members and many community activists think the District is offering a sweetheart deal to rich baseball owners.

"This lease is a giveaway," said ANC Commissioner Mary Williams, part of the counter-rally at Freedom Plaza.

Council member David Catania, a steadfast critic of the lease, said: "The mayor pitched the taxpayers overboard long ago. Seriously. We were thrown overboard without lifejackets long ago."

Which is terrible to endure no matter what the inning is.

Major League Baseball is arguably in the most powerful position, because it's that most all-American of entities: a protected monopoly. It owns the crucial commodity, the team itself. It has refused to sell the team until the stadium deal is approved. The baseball owners can pick up and move if they want. They could take the team to Vegas.

Which brings in the poker metaphor.

"I think they're bluffing when they say they'll leave," Catania said. "MLB has found a lucrative home and deep pocket and there's no way they're walking away."

The mayor's spokesman, Vince Morris, has a different metaphor.

"Some of the council members are trying to play a game of chicken. They say, 'We've got the team, let's force Major League Baseball to bend at the knees and come to us and give us more money.' That's very naive."

Conflict is crucial to the sport of politics. Without conflict, there'd be no game, no heroes, hardly anything that could be called a victory. As the stadium fight reaches two strikes with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, everyone's hoping for a knockout punch, or a Hail Mary pass.

Prediction: It will come down to a three-point shot at the buzzer.