Postseason Dark Horse? It Depends on the Colts

There's no telling how the rest of the season will play out for the Colts, or whether Tony Dungy even returns. (By Brent Smith -- Reuters)

It's been a bizarre little football season, from the opening curtain when Hurricane Katrina dislodged the New Orleans Saints and the NFL preposterously rewarded the New York Giants a ninth home game, to just last week when the joy of the Indianapolis Colts' season turned to tragedy. It has produced, almost equally, duds like the Eagles, Packers and Ravens, and surprising achievers like (so far) the Redskins, Bears, Bengals, Jaguars and Seahawks.

But the truth is, for 14 weeks there was only one team worth watching, studying, dissecting and debating. That team was the Colts, undefeated through 13 games but heaven only knows from here on in.

Now however, at least eight teams and as many as 10 are worth watching closely. If this season, vanilla at best on the field, is going to be saved, it's going to happen in this sprint to and through the playoffs.

The number one question, of course, is how will the Colts bear the weight of the sorrow enveloping their coach, Tony Dungy, and his extended family of players in the aftermath of his 18-year-old son's death by apparent suicide? Even those of us who believe the Colts will rally around their coach physically and emotionally, particularly come game time, have to allow for the possibility that we have no real knowledge of how something so complex will play out, and whether Dungy will even be on the sideline once the playoffs begin.

And beyond the question of the Colts, there are 50 others, and you'd better begin with the charge of the New England Patriots, the two-time defending champs who have won their last three games by about 650 to 3. One by one, from linebacker Tedy Bruschi to running back Corey Dillon to defensive lineman Richard Seymour, the Patriots have come back from the sick bay. You look out there the last three weeks, as the champs have rolled through the Jets, Bills and then a probable division-winning Buccaneers team, and you have to work really hard to build a case for New England not winning again.

Though Marvin Lewis has done wonders in three years in Cincinnati, the 11-4 Bengals demonstrated by losing at home to the Bills that they're not ready to be counted on in January. In fact, by losing, they opened the door for the Patriots to rush into the No. 3 spot in the AFC, which could facilitate an AFC championship game between the Colts and Patriots, though this time in Indianapolis.

There's no shortage of challengers behind the Patriots, either. What does work in Cincinnati's favor is that the Bengals (unlike next year) are working with no outside pressure whatsoever. Anything they do is like a toddler taking his first steps. And the same pretty much goes for Jacksonville, which could end up as the least imposing 12-4 team in NFL history. While it's hard to grant Jake Plummer full benefit of the doubt given his history, everything he and the Broncos have done this season points to them being a worthy playoff team. And the Steelers, as long as Ben Roethlisberger is able to play through his various injuries, are menacing, as usual.

But if the Colts are able to have their hearts and minds in the game the next time they play for real, they're still the best team and only the Patriots are fit to derail them. One would hope preparing for the games will somehow liberate them, even if only in small chunks, from the sorrow that will follow this team the rest of the season. The Colts have been the story for all the right reasons, and go into the postseason as the story for the saddest of reasons.

We're still trying to figure out who and what the story is in the NFC. Sadly, a preseason decision by the NFL, a dumb one then and a dumber one in retrospect, may have too big an impact on the postseason.

Moving the Saints' home opener to Giants Stadium in the aftermath of Katrina helped one team and only one team: the Giants. Handing an additional home game to a team that isn't any good on the road is unforgivable, not to mention lazy and unimaginative, though you won't hear anybody at league headquarters in New York apologize.

It stinks that the Giants, given how ordinary they are on the road (3-4), could win the division by one game, one extra, league-mandated "home" game. And this doesn't just affect the Redskins and Cowboys, although they have the biggest reason to gripe. Carolina and Tampa Bay could be unfairly affected by the Giants being given an extra home game. The Giants were in contention for a No. 2 seed and a bye week until the Bears clinched both with a win yesterday. Yes, that one extra home game could have been the difference between missing the playoffs entirely at 10-6 and having home-field advantage as the second-best division winner.

Even though Tiki Barber is a worthy MVP candidate (though behind Seattle's Shaun Alexander and his 27 touchdowns), nothing else we saw from the Giants against the Redskins suggests New York is any better the Bears, Buccaneers, Panthers or Redskins. And Seattle, having won 11 straight, would have to be seen as the NFC favorite.

And what about the second-hottest team in the NFC, the Washington Redskins? So much will depend on Mark Brunell's status for next week at Philly and (if necessary) beyond. Brunell, not Michael Vick, should have gone to the Pro Bowl. This isn't to suggest that Patrick Ramsey isn't capable of good relief work; we saw him fulfill that role very well on Christmas Eve. But the Redskins got on this roll late. They need Brunell's mobility, his savvy from previous playoff battles. The last thing you need heading into Philly and possibly the playoffs is to change the trigger man.

If Brunell's knee allows him to play as he has most of the season, the Redskins are a threat to anybody, including the Seahawks in Seattle or the Bears in Chicago. If not, the Redskins will be way up at the top of the list of major questions about the final week of the regular season and whether they'll be included in the drama that remains.