Tremors Detected In Ehrlich's Base

Discontent Among Conservatives Could Weaken Reelection Effort

Maryland Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. says he is not a traditional Republican candidate. (Matt Houston - AP)

Gun rights advocate Jim Purtilo said he never expected Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. to turn Maryland into a place where people could strap on a holster and side arm and roam free.

But the Republican governor has been such a disappointment on even the most nuanced gun issues, Purtilo said, that he is considering urging the 50,000 Maryland subscribers to his firearms newsletter to stay home on Election Day.

"For the most part, we're frustrated," Purtilo said. The Ehrlich administration has "continued to pretty much tell us to our face, 'Where else are you going to go?' They think they have us. They have no need to do stuff for us."

No one believes that Republicans will abandon Ehrlich when he stands for reelection in November 2006. But Purtilo was one of numerous conservative leaders interviewed in recent weeks who said they are noticing cracks in the foundation that gave the state its first Republican governor in a generation.

Just as black voters have warned Democrats not to take them for granted in 2006, social conservatives are starting to send a similar message to the state's leading Republican.

"Ignoring his base would be a major mistake," said Douglas Stiegler, executive director of the Family Protection Lobby, which advocates for conservative causes.

Recent independent polling appears to bolster the idea that Ehrlich's base has started to wobble. Although Ehrlich's popularity has suffered in recent months for a variety of reasons, including President Bush's plummeting approval ratings, the drop has been steepest in the 21 rural and suburban counties that political analysts call the "purple belt" -- sizable pockets of Republican votes in Democrat-dominated Maryland.

In November 2002, Ehrlich was 36 points ahead of his Democratic rival among Maryland voters outside Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore, according to a survey that Potomac Incorporated conducted for the Baltimore Sun. Last month, the governor's lead among those same voters, when he was matched against possible Democratic rival Martin O'Malley, had shrunk to 3 points.

During a brief interview, Ehrlich said he is not a traditional Republican candidate and that his base includes Democratic voters who are relatively moderate on social issues. He has not noticed any slippage with conservatives, although he said he recognizes that his views on certain touchstone issues, such as gun rights and abortion, could leave some disenchanted.

"I'm not held to a standard that everyone in the base has to agree with you on every issue," Ehrlich said.

Officials of the Maryland Republican Party said they have heard nothing disconcerting about how their core voters view Ehrlich. They had a record turnout at recent state convention in Columbia and raised more than $900,000 at the annual party fundraiser, said Audra Miller, a GOP spokeswoman.

"The base is energized," Miller said. "We know we're up against a Democratic Party intent on regaining power, so they are ready and willing to support Governor Ehrlich."