Tremors Detected In Ehrlich's Base

Ehrlich ran for governor with a record from his eight years in Congress that he said would provide his base with a road map for how he would govern. But conservative leaders said the zigzag path Ehrlich has charted has confounded them at times.

He opposed public funding for abortion in Congress, but he has not attempted to strip such funding from Maryland's budget.

He has stated his support for stem cell research but never took a firm stand on a bill providing state money for the research. That measure, which died on the final day of the legislative session last spring, probably will resurface in the session that will open in January.

He has asserted his opposition to same-sex marriage, but he deliberated for weeks last spring before vetoing a bill that would grant certain rights to domestic partners who register with the state.

He came to office with a longtime voting record in favor of gun rights. During the 2002 campaign, he questioned the effectiveness of many gun control laws on the books in Maryland, and he promised to review them if elected. But he reappointed a pick of his anti-gun predecessor to a handgun review board, allowed shooting ranges to be closed and otherwise remained silent on gun rights, Purtilo said.

Stiegler said he believes that there are many Republicans who would have preferred that Ehrlich tackle some of these issues, instead of focusing on the legalization of slot machine gambling, an issue he says many conservatives oppose because of "moral objections."

One of Ehrlich's accomplishments in the 2002 campaign was his ability to keep the various factions of this broader base in line. Doing so again in 2006 will be critical, political analysts say, because Democrats still have a nearly 2-to-1 numerical edge.

Under the circumstances, a sizable turnout from conservative Republicans is a must, said Keith Haller, president of Potomac Incorporated.

Last time around, Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele helped in that effort, Stiegler said, because religious conservatives were drawn to Steele's strong opposition to abortion.

But Steele is running for U.S. Senate in 2006, and several of the names circulating as possible Ehrlich running mates are those of moderate Democrats. Among them, former Prince George's county executive Wayne K. Curry, state School Superintendent Nancy S. Grasmick and Anne Arundel County Executive Janet S. Owens.

Any of those choices "would be very distressing," Stiegler said.

"I don't think he'd pick up enough liberal votes to balance what he's going to lose in the conservative community if he did that," Stiegler said. "I would think we would all just stay home."