Discontent Among Conservatives Could Weaken Reelection Effort
By Matthew Mosk
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 27, 2005
Gun rights advocate Jim Purtilo said he never expected Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. to turn Maryland into a place where people could strap on a holster and side arm and roam free.
But the Republican governor has been such a disappointment on even the most nuanced gun issues, Purtilo said, that he is considering urging the 50,000 Maryland subscribers to his firearms newsletter to stay home on Election Day.
"For the most part, we're frustrated," Purtilo said. The Ehrlich administration has "continued to pretty much tell us to our face, 'Where else are you going to go?' They think they have us. They have no need to do stuff for us."
No one believes that Republicans will abandon Ehrlich when he stands for reelection in November 2006. But Purtilo was one of numerous conservative leaders interviewed in recent weeks who said they are noticing cracks in the foundation that gave the state its first Republican governor in a generation.
Just as black voters have warned Democrats not to take them for granted in 2006, social conservatives are starting to send a similar message to the state's leading Republican.
"Ignoring his base would be a major mistake," said Douglas Stiegler, executive director of the Family Protection Lobby, which advocates for conservative causes.
Recent independent polling appears to bolster the idea that Ehrlich's base has started to wobble. Although Ehrlich's popularity has suffered in recent months for a variety of reasons, including President Bush's plummeting approval ratings, the drop has been steepest in the 21 rural and suburban counties that political analysts call the "purple belt" -- sizable pockets of Republican votes in Democrat-dominated Maryland.
In November 2002, Ehrlich was 36 points ahead of his Democratic rival among Maryland voters outside Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore, according to a survey that Potomac Incorporated conducted for the Baltimore Sun. Last month, the governor's lead among those same voters, when he was matched against possible Democratic rival Martin O'Malley, had shrunk to 3 points.
During a brief interview, Ehrlich said he is not a traditional Republican candidate and that his base includes Democratic voters who are relatively moderate on social issues. He has not noticed any slippage with conservatives, although he said he recognizes that his views on certain touchstone issues, such as gun rights and abortion, could leave some disenchanted.
"I'm not held to a standard that everyone in the base has to agree with you on every issue," Ehrlich said.
Officials of the Maryland Republican Party said they have heard nothing disconcerting about how their core voters view Ehrlich. They had a record turnout at recent state convention in Columbia and raised more than $900,000 at the annual party fundraiser, said Audra Miller, a GOP spokeswoman.
"The base is energized," Miller said. "We know we're up against a Democratic Party intent on regaining power, so they are ready and willing to support Governor Ehrlich."
Ehrlich ran for governor with a record from his eight years in Congress that he said would provide his base with a road map for how he would govern. But conservative leaders said the zigzag path Ehrlich has charted has confounded them at times.
He opposed public funding for abortion in Congress, but he has not attempted to strip such funding from Maryland's budget.
He has stated his support for stem cell research but never took a firm stand on a bill providing state money for the research. That measure, which died on the final day of the legislative session last spring, probably will resurface in the session that will open in January.
He has asserted his opposition to same-sex marriage, but he deliberated for weeks last spring before vetoing a bill that would grant certain rights to domestic partners who register with the state.
He came to office with a longtime voting record in favor of gun rights. During the 2002 campaign, he questioned the effectiveness of many gun control laws on the books in Maryland, and he promised to review them if elected. But he reappointed a pick of his anti-gun predecessor to a handgun review board, allowed shooting ranges to be closed and otherwise remained silent on gun rights, Purtilo said.
Stiegler said he believes that there are many Republicans who would have preferred that Ehrlich tackle some of these issues, instead of focusing on the legalization of slot machine gambling, an issue he says many conservatives oppose because of "moral objections."
One of Ehrlich's accomplishments in the 2002 campaign was his ability to keep the various factions of this broader base in line. Doing so again in 2006 will be critical, political analysts say, because Democrats still have a nearly 2-to-1 numerical edge.
Under the circumstances, a sizable turnout from conservative Republicans is a must, said Keith Haller, president of Potomac Incorporated.
Last time around, Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele helped in that effort, Stiegler said, because religious conservatives were drawn to Steele's strong opposition to abortion.
But Steele is running for U.S. Senate in 2006, and several of the names circulating as possible Ehrlich running mates are those of moderate Democrats. Among them, former Prince George's county executive Wayne K. Curry, state School Superintendent Nancy S. Grasmick and Anne Arundel County Executive Janet S. Owens.
Any of those choices "would be very distressing," Stiegler said.
"I don't think he'd pick up enough liberal votes to balance what he's going to lose in the conservative community if he did that," Stiegler said. "I would think we would all just stay home."
Ehrlich is also considering Republicans who may be more appealing to his base, such as Secretary of State Mary D. Kane, wife of the state party chairman, and state Sen. Sandra B. Schrader (Howard), according to sources familiar with his search.
Several of the state's most vocal conservative leaders said they view next month's legislative session as a critical test for the man they backed in 2002. Conservative leaders say they will be pushing Ehrlich on such issues as same-sex marriage, gun rights, abortion and charter schools.
"This session will be really telling," said Joni Berman, who heads the Maryland Charter School Network. "What the governor does during this session will be critical to get our support."
Tres Kerns, executive director of VoteMarriage.org, said that he expects the governor to do more to block efforts to legalize same-sex marriage and that he will make noise if Ehrlich refuses.
"If we see the legislature keep passing [gay rights] bills and he does nothing, then, yes, I think it will have a big impact on his election," Kerns said.
Purtilo said he told the governor how he could make even mild policy adjustments to help gun owners. If nothing substantial surfaces, he said, "then the firearms community will likely do what it has always done: Punish officials who made us false promises."
Staff writer John Wagner contributed to this report.
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