Balancing Act: Iowa, N.H. vs. Critics

Under New Hampshire law, the secretary of state is required to schedule that state's primary at least seven days before any other state holds a "similar election." Iowa's caucuses are different enough to avoid triggering the provision, but New Hampshire Secretary of State William M. Gardner said in a recent interview that many statewide caucuses are actually primaries in disguise and could prompt countermeasures by his state.

Noting that "we've walked this road before" when other states have tried to encroach on New Hampshire, Gardner said he is confident of the outcome of the debate over the 2008 calendar. "We will preserve the tradition that we have had," he insisted.

But any move by Gardner in late 2007, when he will have to set the date of the New Hampshire primary, could trigger protests and countermoves by Michigan's Levin and others.

The other big complaint is that there are so many contests so early in the year that a presidential candidate becomes unstoppable just by winning in Iowa and New Hampshire and riding the momentum through the next round of contests.

Indeed, the 2004 calendar was designed expressly to encourage an early winner -- on the theory that he would emerge with fewer scars and more money to prepare for the general election showdown. Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) swept to an early nomination victory. But backers of former senator John Edwards (N.C.) felt he had too little time to make his case that he would have been a stronger opponent to President Bush.

The commission proposals address concerns about front-loading in two ways. First, there could be fewer contests in the first 15 days of voting. In 2004, there were nine Democratic contests in that opening round, including Iowa and New Hampshire. In 2008, there could be as few as four and no more than six contests in a similar period.

Beyond this, the panel has two ideas aimed at discouraging too many states from scheduling their contests close to the Feb. 5 date that formally opens the remainder of the nominating season. One is to limit to five the number of contests that could be held in any week. The other calls for giving states bonus delegates to the national nominating convention the later they hold their primaries or caucuses.

William G. Mayer, who has edited or co-authored several books on the nominating process, believes the net effect may be to diminish the problem of stacking too many events early in the year. "It is somewhat less front-loaded . . . than the 2004 calendar," he said.

But Kamarck fears that the effect of the changes will still be a quick outcome in the battle for the Democratic nomination, if only because "there is no time for subsequent electorates to reflect on what happened" in the first few contests.

DNC Chairman Howard Dean and the rest of the national committee now will have three months to wrestle with the proposals before starting to set up the 2008 calendar, but if New Hampshire refuses to yield, the party could face another nasty internal debate and the primary-caucus schedule could remain in flux until just before the voting begins.