Change Is Coming: The Question Is Just How Much

"Everyone is nervous about what they gave and what they were involved in with people on Capitol Hill," Brand said.

For ethics experts like Brand, the consternation has been a business boon. Corporations and congressmen are clamoring to be reminded what the rules allow and, more importantly, what they don't. The result has been a noticeable rise in the number of consultations with counsel. The House of Representatives is considering holding ethics seminars.

"What this episode has done is validate all of the cautionary instructions I've given to clients over the years," said Jan W. Baran of Wiley Rein & Fielding.

"Everything is being looked at in a different light," Brand said. "Everyone is looking at their internal practices to see if they should be doing things in the scale they've been doing them or whether they've already stepped in it" and made a mistake.

At the very least, lawmakers and lobbyists have to be careful not to say or imply that the money that's changing hands is because of, or in anticipation of, any official action. That sort of transaction, while common, will have to remain unspoken.

Other changes are also in the wings. "Most offices on the Hill will look much more closely at travel -- who goes, who is paying, the reason for the trip, etc.," said Dan Danner, senior vice president of the National Federation of Independent Business. "In the end, I think there will be less travel by members [of Congress] and staff at least for a while."

In the wake of The Washington Post's revelation last week of apparently frequent gift-rule violations by BellSouth Corp. lobbyists, congressional offices will also try harder to stay within the Capitol's gift limits, Danner added. "Members and staff will pay much more attention to these limits, and there may be some loss of business at favorite Washington watering holes" as a result.

Wider restrictions on lobbyists are coming as well, and many of them may involve campaign contributions. Both House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) have delegated colleagues to devise new lobbying-disclosure legislation.

But the bill to watch is authored by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.). Under it, lobbying firms and organizations would have to disclose each fundraising event they host or sponsor for federal candidates and the total amount raised at each such event.

The legislation would also require lobbyists to report on their lobbying forms the donations they make to members of Congress and at events that honor members or entities that they created or support. In addition, the bill would force lobbyists to disclose on quarterly reports any gifts worth more than $20 that they gave to lawmakers or their aides, including meals and tickets to events.

Sen. Russell Feingold (D-Wis.) has a separate plan that would go much further. He would outright ban gifts to lawmakers and staff and would prohibit lobbyists from financing or attending trips with members of Congress. Don't expect any new law to be that extreme, but the fact that he could even countenance such ideas is an indication how serious the problem has become.

Will lobbying change? Yes, clearly. But will it change much? Probably not. "Entertainment may slow for a while but then people will figure out new ways to accomplish the same things and it will likely be business as usual for a few years," Danner said, "until the next scandal."

Jeffrey H. Birnbaum writes about the intersection of government and business every other Monday. His e-mail address iskstreetconfidential@washpost.com.