Kaine Has Confidence, if Not a Mandate

Mandate.

Its literal meaning is "an authoritative command or instruction." In political terms, however, it means everything. Having one gives a leader juice to get done what he sees fit. Lacking one makes a steep hill seem that much steeper.

Does Gov.-elect Timothy M. Kaine (D) have one?

The answer might determine whether Kaine's first tangle with the Republican-controlled General Assembly is a success or a failure.

If lawmakers think Kaine comes to the governor's office with a directive from the public, his agenda might succeed. If not, look for members of Kaine's crack communications staff to be spinning minor victories into major achievements, much as their predecessors for Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) did.

The word "mandate" itself barely escapes the lips of Kaine's advisers publicly. In the political world, to claim a mandate is a sign that you don't have one.

Kaine and his people do seem confident. Ask them whether they think they can get growth controls passed in committees that have killed such bills in a heartbeat for years. Or their chances for locking up the transportation trust fund. Or for creating the beginnings of a pre-kindergarten program.

Tell Kaine that House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) and other Republicans are sure to be gunning for him. Remind him that his party is the minority in the House of Delegates and on the wrong end of the partisan divide in the Senate.

None of it seems to matter to Kaine, who grins and expresses great confidence as he prepares to take office Saturday.

In addition to a belief in his own political skills and those of the people around him, Kaine apparently thinks that November's election sent a strong message that lawmakers won't soon forget.

There are different ways to assess whether Kaine's victory gives him the right to claim a broad mandate to push his agenda through the assembly. Kaine beat former attorney general Jerry W. Kilgore (R) by 6 percentage points -- a bigger margin than Warner enjoyed over Mark L. Earley (R). But Kaine's total counted for only 52 percent of those voting -- hardly a dominating electoral performance.

On the plus side, Kaine's win was not regionally lopsided. He won across the state, although not everywhere. His strength was greatest in Northern Virginia, where he trounced Kilgore, and weakest in Kilgore's home area, southwest Virginia.