Divided Fatah Braces For Check on Power

The new parliament will consist of people selected equally from the parties' national and local lists of candidates. Fatah tried to set its list by holding its first party primaries last month, an experiment that ended disastrously, with reports of widespread fraud.

Fatah initially submitted two national lists to the election commission, reflecting a split with the potential to divide the movement and doom its chances of winning a parliamentary majority. But Abbas brokered a compromise that resulted in a single list, which Fatah leaders, old and young, made a show of supporting during a campaign kickoff this month with balloons and speeches at Arafat's tomb in Ramallah.

"In essence we are heading toward the unknown," said Abbas Zaki, 63, a member of Fatah's influential Central Committee.

With ash-gray hair, thick-framed glasses and office walls charting an itinerant political life, Zaki is the embodiment of Fatah's old guard. The photos hanging in the waiting room of his cramped Hebron office tell the story of the movement's fading revolutionary cachet: a young Zaki with Fidel Castro in Havana, shaking hands with Vietnamese officials in Hanoi, inside the Kremlin.

But these days Zaki is more self-critical than nostalgic.

"Because our project has failed, Hamas is gaining new legitimacy in the Palestinian street," Zaki said. "Palestine is not extreme. If Hamas wins the elections, it will be the end of our program."

The spreading violence in the territories, particularly Gaza, has shaken many Palestinians and undermined international aid and investment at a time when the governing authority is desperate for both. Citing security concerns, Israel has also refused to remove many of the military checkpoints from the West Bank and turn over cities to Palestinian security forces, as agreed to nearly a year ago. Fatah members say their candidates would benefit enormously if Israel loosened its hold there.

"Fatah is not doing a lot to help itself, and neither is anyone else," said Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. "Fatah is not capitalizing on areas where it could do much better."

According to Shikaki's polling, those areas include law and order, economics and managing a peace process with Israel. Hamas is favored by those most concerned about official corruption. But Fatah's popularity has followed the same downward slope as public opinion regarding peace with Israel, Shikaki said, a matter in which the party has a large political stake.

"There is a great deal of disappointment over where the peace process is from a year ago," Shikaki said, referring to the feelings of ordinary Palestinians. "The question is whether they believe achieving an agreement is possible at all. And when people don't think it matters one way or the other, they will look at Hamas or Fatah on other issues."

But here in Qalqilyah, a city of 43,000 farmers, merchants and unemployed laborers who once worked inside Israel, Fatah has a chance, even though the region is considered an emerging Hamas stronghold.

Hamas used its reputation for good government to win all 15 council seats here last year. It has since been spending money on roads, hospitals and a project to renovate the West Bank's only zoo, which was buzzing with visitors on a recent rainy morning. A city-funded natural history museum is rising near the giraffe pen.

Hashem Masri, the acting mayor, who won a council seat on Hamas's Change and Reform ticket, said the race for two district seats in parliament would be very close. In a pattern seen throughout the Palestinian territories, Hamas does well in the city, where corruption and militancy inspired by a worsening economy give it a natural base. But Fatah remains strong in rural areas, where clan relations and party history matter more.

"There was great participation in the municipal races, but I would say the participation in this one is only good," Masri said. "It's not going to be easy."