A Jan. 22 article misstated the name of a nonproliferation expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He is Mark Fitzpatrick, not Mark Fitzgerald.
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U.S. Still Short in Iran Security Council Push
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On the other hand, if the IAEA board reports Iran to the Security Council, Tehran has threatened to bar IAEA inspectors from its facilities. Some IAEA board members consider the threat so potentially serious threat that they support prolonging negotiations.
European diplomats say they would like the Security Council to issue a statement supporting the inspection process but keeping the case under IAEA authority if Iran cooperates. But if Iran cuts ties with the inspectors or begins assembling centrifuges at its uranium enrichment plant, the Europeans would ask the council to step in with tougher measures, such as considering a resolution to force cooperation.
European officials are being dispatched to the capitals of all key members of the 35-country IAEA board and are using previously scheduled meetings and bilateral visits to try to cement a consensus for pressure against Iran.
The United States is sending a large team to Vienna ahead of the Feb. 2 IAEA session to meet with diplomats and promote its case. While U.S. officials are saying publicly and privately that they have no intention of seeking immediate sanctions against Iran, they are not laying out their specific plan for action inside the Security Council.
"That has some countries worried," according to a Western diplomat, who said the Bush administration's strategy remained overshadowed by the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
"The Iraq experience colors everything about Iran," said Mark Fitzgerald, a nonproliferation expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former U.S. State Department official. "Those who want to give Iran the benefit of the doubt use the Iraq experience as a reason for doing so: the misuse of intelligence, the mistakes in the intelligence and the way the war has progressed."
Iranian diplomats also have been lobbying in Vienna and in other capitals. Officials said the Iranians have been emphasizing that they have not resumed enrichment work since cutting seals on equipment this month. In private meetings, according to several diplomats, the Iranians are also emphasizing willingness to return to negotiations and increased interest in enriching their uranium in Russia. Those messages are influencing some of the IAEA board members, including several European countries that want to avoid escalating the crisis, diplomats said.
Staff writer Dafna Linzer in Vienna contributed to this report.
