Vote Complicates Area's Diplomacy

Hamas Emerges as Significant Force Despite U.S. Efforts

The Bush administration has strongly urged Palestinian leaders not to permit any Hamas members into the Palestinian cabinet, but yesterday's better-than-expected electoral showing by a group labeled a terrorist organization by the United States greatly complicates the administration's diplomacy in the region, U.S. officials said yesterday.

Hamas, which is dedicated to the destruction of Israel, appears to have ridden a wave of popular disgust at the perceived corruption and incompetence of the ruling Fatah Party. Exit polls indicate Fatah will have only a slim edge over Hamas in the Palestinian Legislative Council, giving Hamas a strong claim to a role in the government.

Fatah in theory may still be able to form a government that excludes Hamas -- formally the Islamic Resistance Movement -- but Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has expressed hope that by bringing Hamas into the political process, it will become a partner in seeking a peace accord with Israel.

The results also suggested the risks inherent in the Bush administration's campaign to bring democracy to the Middle East. Administration spokesmen officially celebrated the "historic moment" for the Palestinians while officials privately reeled at the outcome.

Bush administration officials had hoped Hamas would get as little as 20 percent of the vote. The Washington Post reported Sunday that the United States had spent $2 million in recent weeks to promote the Palestinian Authority, and by extension Fatah, in a campaign that kept U.S. involvement hidden. Before yesterday, officials were bracing for Hamas to receive 30 to 40 percent of the vote; exit polls indicated that Hamas topped 40 percent of the seats.

U.S. officials, from President Bush on down, reiterated that the United States will not deal with Hamas as long as it does not renounce violence.

"A political party, in order to be viable, is one that professes peace, in my judgment, in order that it will keep the peace," Bush said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal yesterday. "And so you're getting a sense of how I'm going to deal with Hamas if they end up in positions of responsibility. And the answer is: not until you renounce your desire to destroy Israel will we deal with you."

Bush's statement left open the possibility that the United States would not reject a Palestinian government that includes Hamas, but instead that the United States would not work directly with cabinet ministers who have Hamas connections. There is a precedent for this approach: The Bush administration already works with the Lebanese government, even though one cabinet member is a member of Hezbollah, also labeled a terrorist group.

The U.S. ambassador to Israel, Dick Jones, was quoted this week in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz as saying the Lebanese model might serve as a guide for dealing with the Palestinian Authority if Hamas joins the government. Jones has told officials in Washington the remarks were made at a dinner party and were taken out of context.

One major issue is that the United States has much more extensive dealings with the Palestinian Authority than it does with Lebanon. Hamas has indicated it would like to obtain ministerial portfolios that touch on social services, raising questions about whether some of the hundreds of millions of dollars in annual U.S. aid could continue to flow to certain public works projects if they are overseen by a Hamas cabinet member.

Moreover, with Israel facing critical elections in March, the administration must deal carefully with the emerging Palestinian government.

The administration must also hold together its allies in the peace process, particularly the European Union. Last late year, the sponsors of the "road map" peace plan, known as the Quartet, issued a statement saying that "a future Palestinian Authority cabinet should include no member who has not committed to the principles of Israel's right to exist in peace and security and an unequivocal end to violence and terrorism."

But that statement was not categorical, and some European officials have indicated in recent days that instead of the black-and-white view expressed by the United States, perhaps Hamas needed greater encouragement to make a break with its past, much like the Irish Republican Army. One U.S. official sighed that the European Union was like the "International House of Pancakes -- there are a ton of waffles there."

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will meet in London next week with her counterparts from the European Union, Russia and the United Nations to try to reach an agreement. "There will be a very healthy debate about how to encourage Hamas to eschew violence and get into the political process," one diplomat involved in the discussions said.