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In Central Asia, New Players, Same Game
America's limited public role in Central Asia goes beyond the media and entertainment industries. In high-profile international investments, the United States lags behind Iran, China and Russia, whose combined annual gross domestic product is about three-quarters that of the United States. Washington has no equivalent effort to the Anzob tunnel project, which will not only ease domestic transport in Tajikistan, but will also connect local merchants and goods to markets as far away as Russia and Pakistan. This lack of public presence best explains why, according to InterMedia data, the number of Tajiks "favorably inclined" toward the United States fell from 58 percent in 2001 to 31 percent in 2004. For citizens like my taxi driver Gulab, Iranian projects show Tehran's rapport with the ordinary man, while Washington's apparent tight-fistedness reflects a flimsy commitment to helping people in Central Asia -- and ultimately, to winning the Great Game.
One afternoon I sat in a cafe in Khujand discussing the Great Game with a Tajik friend. He was a man who spoke perfect English, had worked with American corporations after the collapse of the Soviet Union and had even spent some time in the United States. I asked him to envisage how the superpower competition in Central Asia would shape up over the next decade. How could a country win the Great Game? "Show us the money," he said with a grin.
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Central Asia could yet buck the trend of anti-Americanism that has swept the wider Muslim world. The loyalties and allegiances of most people there are still for sale. But the United States's ability to win over hearts and minds is in jeopardy. Ten years from now, my friend thought, "everyone else might be here, but the Americans won't still be interested. They just don't have the patience." Yet patience could well be the name of the Game.
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Nicholas Schmidle is a freelance writer based in Washington.
