Loudoun Race Could Portend Political Shift

Democrats are hoping to maintain their momentum in Tuesday's special election for a state senate seat covering parts of Loudoun and Fairfax counties, while Republicans want to prove that the GOP can be more effective than its rival in controlling growth and improving roads.

Vying to represent the 33rd District are Loudoun County Supervisor Mick Staton Jr. (R-Sugarland Run) and lawyer Mark R. Herring (D), a former supervisor. The seat was vacated by William C. Mims, a Leesburg Republican who this month became the chief deputy state attorney general.

The 33rd District has been in Republican hands as long as the Senate has -- since 1998, when Mims succeeded former state senator Charles L. Waddell.

But in the November election, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) surprised the region -- and the state -- by sweeping the Republican-leaning outer suburbs of Washington, including Loudoun, on a message of cutting traffic congestion and controlling growth.

At the same time, Del. Richard H. Black, a Loudoun Republican, lost to a Democrat, David Poisson, after four terms in office.

On Tuesday, voters from Loudoun and nine precincts in western Fairfax could indicate whether a lasting shift is occurring.

"It's hard to draw any conclusions from a special election. Anything can happen," said Kevin Griffis, spokesman for the Democratic Party of Virginia. But he added that "Tim Kaine's success in Loudoun County in November can only mean good things for Mark Herring."

Herring and Staton have some things in common. Both have served as supervisors. And both married into local political families. Herring is the son-in-law of Waddell; Staton is married to Black's daughter.

Staton is playing up his association with Black, but not everyone thinks it will help. State Democrats paid for a mailing this week that reminds voters of the relationship -- a sign that they view it as a liability.

Black is helping Staton in other ways, however. In December, he gave his son-in-law $15,000 of his leftover campaign funds; he also bequeathed Staton his well-organized, grass-roots network and some of his stature in Virginia politics.

At a campaign event Thursday in western Fairfax, Staton and Black stood alongside well-known members of the GOP: Mims, Mims's new boss, Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell and U.S. Rep. Frank R. Wolf. The lineup praised Staton's record of responding to constituents' needs, and Wolf talked up Staton's promise to ease congestion.

But it's not clear whether Staton is attracting votes with that growth-related message.