Duncan Fundraising Suffers Narrow Base
Candidate Leads Only in Montgomery

By John Wagner and Derek Willis
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, January 29, 2006

Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan lags behind Maryland's two other contenders for governor not only in the amount of campaign cash he has raised but also in demonstrating a statewide reach.

Nearly three-fifths of the $1.3 million Duncan (D) collected last year came from the county he has served for the past 11 years, according to a Washington Post analysis of campaign finance reports released this month.

By contrast, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (D) raised about $4.3 million during the period, with a little more than a quarter of that coming from his city. Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R) took in a similar percentage from Baltimore County, his home base, en route to raising $4.9 million for the year.

The totals for Ehrlich and O'Malley demonstrated far greater statewide contributor bases. In one striking example, both the mayor and governor raised more than Duncan in Prince George's County, a jurisdiction seen as crucial to Duncan's primary prospects. Ehrlich raised more than $200,000 there, while O'Malley took in more than $137,000 and Duncan about $88,000.

Although the primary is eight months away and Maryland is replete with examples of candidates who prevail with less money, Duncan's fundraising report has led to questions about his campaign and his strategy for overcoming O'Malley's lead in the polls.

Duncan heard such concerns last week at a town hall meeting he held in Prince George's, and he told the potential supporters that it was still early in the campaign and that his campaign has always known it would be outspent.

"I've never raised as much money as my opponents, I've never been the front-runner, I've never been the party's favorite, and I've never lost an election," said Duncan, who was mayor of Rockville before three terms as county executive.

But some analysts and Democratic activists say Duncan's money woes are emblematic of larger hurdles confronting his candidacy.

"Money is not votes, of course, but it's an indication of breadth of support, demographically and geographically," said Thomas F. Schaller, a political science professor at the University of Maryland Baltimore County who is active in Democratic politics and supports O'Malley.

O'Malley campaign manager Jonathan Epstein said he believes O'Malley nearly was able to match Ehrlich's pace last year because Democrats view him as the most likely candidate to beat the Republican incumbent in the fall.

Ehrlich, however, has a significant advantage in available cash over O'Malley because of money raised, and banked, from previous years.

This month, Ehrlich reported $8.4 million in the bank, compared with O'Malley's $4.2 million and Duncan's less than $1.4 million.

Duncan supporters acknowledged in interviews last week that his fundraising pace will have to pick up considerably for the county executive to have a chance -- something Duncan alludes to in a new fundraising solicitation that says he will need $15 million for the race.

Duncan spokeswoman Jody Couser said the campaign is confident it will have the money to compete, but she added: "This race really isn't about money. It's about issues. . . . Money does not equate to votes. The vast majority of people don't contribute to campaigns."

Duncan's campaign, which bulked up staffing far more quickly than those of his rivals, spent more than it raised in the past year as the county executive trailed O'Malley by double digits in early polling.

Many Duncan supporters interviewed counseled patience, suggesting that he will be able to raise more money as he becomes better known.

"You just have to have enough money to get your message out," said Gene Ransom, a Queen Anne's County commissioner and Duncan backer. "It remains to be seen if he'll do that. But it's so early. If he's in bad shape in July or August, then it's a very different story."

Still, even some die-hard supporters acknowledged surprise that Duncan's totals were not more competitive. Even the roughly $730,000 he raised in Montgomery was less than many expected. To win the Democratic primary, Duncan is counting on dominating his home county when votes are cast.

In the money chase, Ehrlich raised more than $513,000 in Montgomery, while O'Malley, who grew up in the county, took in more than $293,000.

In general, both O'Malley and Ehrlich enjoyed far more success raising money in the Washington region than Duncan did in the Baltimore area, where he is still struggling to become known -- and to open wallets.

In the city, O'Malley raised more than $1.1 million -- more than twice what Ehrlich did and more than 20 times what Duncan did.

In Baltimore County, Ehrlich raised more than $1.2 million -- about 25 times what Duncan did. O'Malley raised about three-quarters as much as Ehrlich.

Collectively, about one of every five dollars was raised in Baltimore County, a jurisdiction that follows state politics more closely than the Washington area and one in which both the Republican governor and Democratic mayor are popular.

The analysis also showed Duncan making little headway with fundraising in Anne Arundel and Howard counties, two jurisdictions nestled between Washington and Baltimore where some analysts believe Duncan could make inroads with voters. O'Malley has won most early endorsements from Democratic officials there, which could prove crucial general election battlegrounds.

Ehrlich was particularly strong financially in Anne Arundel, raising about three times what O'Malley did and more than 20 times what Duncan did. In Howard, Ehrlich and O'Malley were competitive, but Duncan lagged far behind again.

All three candidates' bank accounts were bolstered by out-of-state money, with donors in the District and Virginia collectively kicking in more than $780,000.

O'Malley was the most aggressive in seeking out-of-state money, with a focus on the northeastern corridor. Aides said O'Malley benefited from networking with other mayors nationally and from ties to former presidential campaign staffers for Gary Hart, for whom O'Malley worked.

Staff writer Robert Barnes contributed to this report.