This Year, It's Winter That's in Hibernation
One of the Warmest Januaries on Record Calls People Outdoors

By D'Vera Cohn
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Scenes from what is normally the coldest month of the year in Washington: Daffodil foliage is bursting from the ground. Hibernating bats are waking up to hunt for insects. And an outdoor lunch on a park bench in a T-shirt is perfectly comfortable.

What's going on here? This month apparently will be one of the 10 warmest Januaries on record at two area airports and the warmest at Dulles International. Yesterday's high at Reagan National Airport was 64 on a day when it usually is in the low 40s. January also is likely to tie the record for the least snow, with only a trace of it in a month that usually gets six or seven inches.

Standing outside the Alexandria courthouse yesterday in a sleeveless black blouse, Sonia Romero said her colleagues chided her for going outside without a jacket.

"What do I need one for in this weather?" she said, laughing. "This is great. You don't even have to ask what I think about this weather -- just look at me.

"But seriously, I think we're getting close to the end of the world," continued Romero, 58. "We had a long fall and an abbreviated winter, and spring is just around the corner. It's weird."

The explanation for the mild January, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Brian Guyer, is a high-pressure system parked over the Atlantic Ocean. When a cold front tries to come through, the high pressure instead pushes it farther north.

Guyer said this is likely to be the warmest January on the books at Dulles Airport, where records have been kept since 1962. It looks to be among the top 10 at National and Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall airports, whose records go back to the late 1800s.

"Notable, definitely," he said.

The warm weather and lack of snow have helped birds and other creatures find food and encouraged some to come out early. Someone called the Hidden Oaks Nature Center in Annandale to report that praying mantises were hatching, and manager Michael McDonnell said he saw a pair of bats flying around last week, catching insects at night. Normally, they are hibernating at this time of year.

"It's busting out all over," he said, "and it's only January."

The National Weather Service chose yesterday to unveil a new five-category scale for measuring huge snowstorms in the Northeast, which includes Washington, that is similar to ones it uses for hurricanes and tornadoes. The rating on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale will be based on the size of the area and number of people affected by the storm and how much snow it drops. Categories will range from "notable" to "extreme." In between are "significant," "major" and "crippling."

On the forecast side, rain is quite possible today, but no snow is predicted for at least the next week.

"Wait, what winter? It snowed, what, once or twice?" said Sheila White, who propped open the door of the dog and cat boutique in Alexandria where she works, the better to let in the mellow air and eager customers. "I don't think that's happening again. The daffodils are starting to poke out. Winter is done."

Perhaps. On the one hand, according to Guyer, the 10 warmest Januaries have been followed six times by notably warm Februaries. On the other, the weather service's Climate Prediction Center said there are signs that this February could be colder than normal.

Along Carroll Creek in Frederick, where new buildings are under construction as part of the downtown's redevelopment, men were working in shirt sleeves.

"Two days ago, it was frozen solid in here," said Dennis Martin, 53, of Hagerstown, Md. From a broader perspective, however, he said he did not know what to make of the changes and whether they were another sign of global climate change triggered by pollution from human activity.

"I saw a show the other day with scientists talking about global warming. That made it sound like that was affecting it this year. I don't know," Martin said. "I think it's going to have some kind of effect on the atmosphere."

But his co-worker Barry Verdier, 55, of Wolfsville disagreed.

"I think global warming is a bunch of bull," Verdier said, smoking a cigarette and placing surveyor's markers in the ground. "It's done this all my life."

Staff writers Fredrick Kunkle and Jamie Stockwell contributed to this report.