It's Not Time to Hit The Panic Button -- Yet

In mid-December, the Wizards had lost 10 of 13 games and just plain stunk up the gym. They were offensively searching for an identity while defensively losing their men. It was then that the owner, the president of basketball operations and the coach had a clear-the-air meeting at MCI Center.

Eighty-two-year-old Abe Pollin, who last won a title in 1978, did not want to wait until he was 102 to contend again. Mr. Pollin, as he is respectfully called, wanted to make sure Mr. Jordan and Mr. Grunfeld were on the same page, that the Eddie-and-Ernie Show would not go down as a one-hit wonder.

Pollin even telephoned Jordan in his Denver hotel room about a week later, to reassure the coach he was in no danger of losing his job. "He said, 'You're fine. Relax,' " Jordan recalled. " 'Nothing is going to happen to you. You're my guy.' That meant a lot.

"Mr. Pollin and Susan O'Malley are my biggest supporters," he said of the franchise's two most powerful people.

Six weeks later, it would be nice and tidy to say the course has been changed for good. The idealist would look at the Wizards and see them toying with .500, winning and defending more consistently. They staved off Indiana at home last night, 84-79, moving to 21-22, picking up their eighth victory in 11 games. That began a stretch of six of seven games at home, a chance to move up in the middle of the pack of an eroding Eastern Conference, which is about the Pistons and nobody else.

Gilbert Arenas, their best player, is 24 and fourth in the league in scoring. Their "graybeard" veteran is Antawn Jamison, just 29, a guy making a late push for his second all-star appearance. Back to dropping in his off-the-wrong-foot, unorthodox runners and floaters, Jamison's January averages were 21 points and nine rebounds. Caron Butler will be 26 in March. It's a nice, young nucleus from which to build. Grunfeld has done much to change the culture in less than three years, and he points to wins this season over San Antonio, Detroit, Phoenix and Denver as evidence that this new crew has the ability to beat the elite on given nights.

As bad as 10-14 or 13-19 looked a while ago, the dreamer now sees the Wizards only 5 1/2 games behind Miami in the Southeast Division and four games away from hosting a first-round playoff series.

But the realist knows better. The realist knows the Wizards' scorers are not natural defenders and they never will be. With Jarvis Hayes snake-bitten by injury, they have no player to consistently knock down a 15-footer nor do they have a natural power forward -- the kind of players Jordan publicly campaigned for after last season's sweep by the Heat in the second round. Players whose skills the Wizards developed and whose value they increased -- Larry Hughes, Juan Dixon and Steve Blake -- departed in the offseason without bringing anything in return.

Hughes, their number one offseason priority, left partly to play with LeBron James and make as much as he could and mostly because he was insulted by the team's original contract offer. The team figured Hughes was leaning toward staying, but the Wizards' early negotiating ploy backfired badly.

When observers point out that Butler became Hughes's replacement they fail to point out that the Wizards could have had both players. They also would have had enough left to use their mid-level exception on a player like Darius Songaila, who ended up in Chicago. Before the Pacers game, if you had wanted to play the fruitless "If the Playoffs Started Today" game, fine. The Wizards would have faced the 37-6 Pistons in the first round. Good night and good luck.

That's not progress after a 45-win season, after the franchise's first playoff series victory in 23 years. That's a first-round elimination and a step backward. That's not getting Mr. Pollin any closer to bear-hugging a player in his arms again.

If they view this as part of a five-year build toward a title, maybe then they get some slack. No need to panic before the February trading deadline. But these playoff windows are closing quicker and quicker in the NBA. A team cannot be an annual contender in the realm of the Knicks in the 1990s and the Kings of the new millennium, where selling hope for almost a decade is enough. Shaquille O'Neal swung an entire conference's pendulum when he was traded. Owners are younger and more impetuous than ever.

If the Wizards look good the next two weeks, Grunfeld should give them the opportunity to finish the season together and see what kind of noise they can make in May. Then he should make the necessary changes. If the Wizards start falling apart defensively again the next two weeks, do something. Now, not later.

Take Etan Thomas, Jared Jeffries and maybe Antonio Daniels and go after a bona fide, 20-point, 10-rebound low post scorer and defender. Thomas is a brute of a man, who works harder than anyone in the weight room. But he gets pushed under the basket too often for a man his size. You have to love his Renaissance traits as a fan, his poetry recitals during the season, his thoughtfulness. But at this point, the Wizards need less Robert Frost and more Robert Parish. The largest man on their roster survived just five games before he was sent back to the D-league yesterday. Seven-foot-three Peter John Ramos will be heretofore be known as Peter John Roanoke.

The idealist will keep saying it's going to work. The dreamer will say they have what it takes to contend now. But the realist knows: The Wizards are not going forward unless they make some personnel upgrades.

Ultimately, it comes down to this: Grunfeld and the organization have to decide quickly what kind of team they want, a perennial playoff squad or a championship contender. They can say they want to win a championship all they want, but this roster, as comprised, does not have the tools to go that far. As it stands now, the Wizards are looking at status quo, no better than second round and out.