Handful of Races May Tip Control of Congress

The DSCC ended last year with about $15 million more in the bank than the NRSC. On the House side, the NRCC raised $22 million more than its Democratic counterpart, but ended the year with just $4 million more in its campaign coffers. Looming over all of these financial calculations is the sizable $28.5 million cash edge the Republican National Committee has over the Democratic National Committee, which could wipe out other Democratic fundraising successes in 2005.

If there is a wave that carries Democrats to power in the Senate, it must begin in Democratic strongholds of the East, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, before sweeping west through such traditionally GOP-leaning states as Montana, Ohio, Missouri and Arizona. Democrats are most optimistic about defeating Republican incumbents in the first four of these half-dozen states. Beating the incumbents in the other two looks more difficult.

Republicans hope to insulate themselves from expected losses by targeting two of the Democrats' three open Senate seats -- Maryland and Minnesota -- and are talking up their chances against three Democratic incumbents: Sens. Robert C. Byrd (W.Va.), Robert Menendez (N.J.) and Ben Nelson (Neb.).

The marquee Senate contest this year is in Pennsylvania, where Santorum is being challenged in his bid for a third term by state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D). Santorum's high-profile conservatism combined with Bush's flagging numbers in the Democratic-leaning state have given Casey a clear edge in polls the past six months. But Casey has yet to define himself as a Senate candidate, preferring to stay away from hot-button issues and focus on Santorum.

In Rhode Island, Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee (R) faces a two-front battle. He will face off against Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, who is running as a populist outsider, in the Sept. 12 GOP primary. Should he advance to the general election, Chafee will face one of two Democrats: former state attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse, the current front-runner for his party's nomination, or Secretary of State Matt Brown.

Republican strategists are more concerned about Chafee's ability to win the primary than the general election. One of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, Chafee must win over a significant portion of his party's conservative base to defeat Laffey in a primary that is open only to registered Republicans and independents. Most strategists say any Republican but Chafee would be hard-pressed to win the general election in a heavily Democratic state.

Two other Republican senators appear to be in real trouble at the moment, as two different scandals echo through the election year.

In Montana, Burns has been hurt by reports detailing his financial and staff ties to disgraced lobbyist Abramoff. Democrats have already run three ads hitting Burns on the scandal. Burns has responded with a commercial insisting that Abramoff never influenced him. Republicans say that Burns is ramping up his campaign now and dismiss chatter about his potential retirement.

Nevertheless, the scandal publicity has dampened Burns's reelection prospects. He holds narrow leads over state Auditor John Morrison and state Sen. Jon Tester, the two Democrats seeking to unseat him in November.

DeWine, on the other hand, is struggling in his reelection race because of GOP scandals in the Buckeye State, which have scuffed the Republican brand in Ohio even though DeWine is not personally implicated. Outgoing Gov. Bob Taft (R) was convicted of a misdemeanor offense last year for his role in the scandals, and his approval ratings are now below 20 percent.

Not all is gloomy for DeWine, however, as Democrats seem headed toward a nasty May primary that could leave the opposition drained. That contest pits Rep. Sherrod Brown against Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett, who excited liberal bloggers last year with a narrower-than-expected loss in a congressional special election.

Even if Democrats defeated those four vulnerable Republicans, they would have to beat two somewhat less vulnerable Republicans, Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl and Missouri Sen. James M. Talent, to pick up the six seats needed for control. Or they would have to beat one of the two and count on Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr. (D) winning the Tennessee open seat vacated by retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.