Handful of Races May Tip Control of Congress

At this point estimates of the number of genuinely competitive House races ranges from a low of 25 or 30 to as high as 40 in the most optimistic Democratic scenarios. Democrats' best opportunities will come in Republican-held open seats, with the three best prospects, according to both parties, in Arizona's 8th District, Colorado's 7th District and Iowa's 1st District.

But Republicans say they have opportunities to pick up seats in Ohio's 6th and 13th districts, both of which are being vacated by Democratic members seeking statewide office.

Given recent trends, in which reelection rates have hovered around 95 percent in the House, it is no easy task to beat a sitting member of Congress. Because of the Abramoff scandal, however, Democrats have two golden opportunities to oust embattled incumbents in Ohio and Texas.

Former House majority leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), who, in addition to his connections to Abramoff, is under indictment by an Austin grand jury, finds himself in what promises to be a close race against former representative Nick Lampson (D). Former Republican representative Steve Stockman's independent candidacy is another complicating factor for DeLay.

Ohio Rep. Robert W. Ney (R) appears to be at the center of the pay-to-play schemes of Abramoff and has been informed by federal investigators that he may be indicted. Ney has pledged to run regardless but is trailing his two little-known Democratic opponents in internal GOP surveys.

Indiana is another place to watch as GOP Reps. Michael E. Sodrel and John N. Hostettler both face extremely competitive Democratic challenges in districts that favor Republicans on the presidential level. Sodrel faces a rematch against Baron Hill (D), the incumbent he narrowly ousted in 2004. Hostettler -- who makes little effort to raise money and forswears political consultants in favor of a local network of conservative activists -- is being challenged by Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D).

Among Democratic incumbents, Republican House strategists see Reps. John Barrow (Ga.), Melissa L. Bean (Ill.), Leonard L. Boswell (Iowa), Chet Edwards (Tex.) and Jim Marshall (Ga.) as beatable.

Cillizza is a staff writer for washingtonpost.com. Political researcher Zachary A. Goldfarb contributed to this report.