Duncan, The Earnest Underdog

The cruelty of the conventional wisdom must drive Doug Duncan crazy. Such a gifted executive! Such excellent gubernatorial material! But what a pity that he can't possibly win the Democratic primary.

That's the paradox of the political season in Maryland: that a candidate so widely admired for his smarts, skill and success at running Montgomery County for the past 12 years is stuck on a campaign treadmill, expending terrific effort without much visible sign of progress.

Duncan is crisp -- coolheaded, proficient and practically allergic to glitz. He is the anti-Dangerfield of state politics: He gets respect, but not much else.

He oversaw the rebirth of Silver Spring; the creation of almost 90,000 jobs; the emergence of a major biotech corridor; the construction of a first-class performing arts center; the absorption of tens of thousands of immigrants; and improvements in one of the nation's best and most diverse public school systems.

But despite a constituent base that includes some of the wealthiest and most generous Democratic benefactors this side of Beverly Hills, Duncan remains the pauper of the gubernatorial race.

Too pro-business for the county's liberal activists and too local for its nationally oriented Democratic donors, Duncan is flat-lining financially. Last year, when he should have been stockpiling cash ahead of this year's Sept. 12 primary, he hired a campaign staff too early, paid it too much and spent more money than he raised. His opponent in the primary, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, wound up with three times more money in the bank; the Republican incumbent, Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., amassed eight times as much. Not surprisingly, Duncan stagnated in the polls against the better-known O'Malley, who retains a double-digit lead.

In Baltimore, O'Malley -- a telegenic media magnet who headlined his own rock band -- can get on TV with a smile and a wave; much of the coverage he gets is fawning. On Washington's local news shows, Duncan is not exactly headline material. When he does manage to get noticed lately, more often than not it's because local activists in Montgomery are riled up -- about traffic, or the pace of development, or elementary schools that lack gyms. O'Malley, mayor of one of the nation's more troubled big cities, would love problems like that. While Duncan gets beaten up by his own constituents, the Baltimore mayor is busy planning long-range strategy in the general election against Ehrlich.

That dynamic -- plus O'Malley's shrewd move in choosing as his running mate Anthony Brown, an African American state legislator and Army reservist who recently returned from Iraq -- has given O'Malley an aura of invincibility in the primary. Democratic insiders, desperate to deny Ehrlich a second term, are starting to worry that Duncan's candidacy can only hurt the party. There are whispers that he is having trouble finding a running mate to be his lieutenant governor.

In Montgomery's neighboring jurisdiction, Prince George's County, a key battleground rich in black voters, most state senators have withheld their support from Duncan. Jack B. Johnson, the Prince George's county executive, said more than a year ago that he planned to endorse Duncan. But so far he's sat on his hands and stayed away from Duncan's campaign events in the county.

What to do? Duncan plugs away, proclaiming the tortoise's fine track record against the hare. His electoral strategy is to build a fortress of support in Montgomery and carve out a beachhead in and around Baltimore. Convinced that O'Malley is vulnerable with his own large black constituency -- the mayor has tangled with some prominent black figures in Baltimore and angered some people by pushing aggressive police tactics -- Duncan is courting African American voters and visits Baltimore constantly.

While O'Malley jumps from issue to issue -- the environment, sexual predators, homeland security, avian flu, teacher retention -- Duncan talks incessantly about education. Speaking at a community center in Prince George's recently, he harped on education for so long that someone finally asked him what his other priorities were (he mentioned crime). Taking a page from Democrat Tim Kaine's successful race for governor of Virginia in November, Duncan speaks openly about his Catholic faith. "My mother taught me that religious service is the highest calling, political service is the next highest."

He has no choice but to make a virtue of his own stolid doggedness and leave the rock 'n' roll to O'Malley. "I don't play the guitar," he says amiably. "But I got a pretty good singing voice." So far, however, Duncan's rap about the job-creating miracle of Silver Spring and his proposals for college scholarships have not set Democrats' hearts racing. And unless he figures a way to raise money and get noticed, he'll soon have Democrats grumbling. No matter what his record of success, no one loves a spoiler.

The writer is a member of the editorial page staff. His e-mail address ishockstaderl@washpost.com.