By Spencer S. Hsu
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, February 15, 2006

In proposing to bolster the Federal Emergency Management Agency by creating a full-time response force of 1,500 people and expanding 10 regional offices, White House homeland security adviser Frances Fragos Townsend and Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff are grappling again with FEMA's long-term future, a question at the heart of the nation's disaster preparedness.

Should the government's best-known response agency remain a relatively small, 2,500-worker force largely focused on processing disaster claims and coordinating federal help in a crisis?

Or should it be beefed up into a more muscular agency -- a "FEMA on steroids," as planners envisioned in creating the Department of Homeland Security in 2003 -- one capable of being on the ground when required?

Several experts and officials in touch with the Bush administration say the changes proposed Monday -- adding reconnaissance teams, improving vendor databases and strengthening claims management -- only scratch the surface of needed changes.

What Chertoff announced "was a necessary step but not sufficient. I expect him to go further," said Richard A. Falkenrath, a former Bush White House official and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who was an original architect of the Homeland Security Department. "It's cultural change [with FEMA] and leadership, and they need more resources, there's just no question."

James Jay Carafano of the Heritage Foundation agreed that the administration's preview Monday "doesn't really solve the problem," which is the ability to push help in the critical first 72 hours of a crisis and unify the government under one command. Both tasks are now beyond FEMA's power, he said.

The real question is whether to shift FEMA from what Falkenrath called "a very pliant posture" of waiting for state and local leaders to ask for help in a disaster, to a more aggressive role without trampling on governors and mayors.

Overall, Townsend and Chertoff began to sketch out their vision in speeches to 50 state emergency managers Monday. In a speech titled "Transforming National Preparedness," Townsend embraced the notion of including state, local and federal agency personnel in bigger FEMA regional offices. That would be a variation on a plan championed by Chertoff's predecessor, Tom Ridge, but rejected largely because of cost.

Without saying that FEMA would be put in charge, Townsend said the Homeland Security Department will play a more robust role in forging a "culture of preparedness," partly by becoming a tougher enforcer of state and local homeland security grants. By the end of 2006, more than $18 billion will have been committed to improve state and local preparedness since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Fewer than half the states say they are prepared to respond to a catastrophic disaster, according to a Homeland Security Department analysis, the Associated Press reported. Asked to assess their plans to respond to a catastrophe, 20 states said they felt confident, 14 states said they were somewhat confident, while 13 reported they were not confident. Only five states said they were confident that their evacuation plans would work during a catastrophe.

Bush's $2.8 trillion 2007 budget would require state and local governments to report more fully on how they spend their money. But it also would trim funds for state and local programs by nearly 10 percent.

While the White House says it wants to increase FEMA discretionary spending by $363 million next year, all but $68 million would go to mandatory programs and disaster funds. The agency's main initiatives would add 220 workers.

FEMA's troubles are making it difficult to find a successor for Acting Director R. David Paulison. State members of the National Emergency Management Association with whom Townsend and Chertoff met said that several members have discussed the job of FEMA chief but expressed little interest. Former California emergency services director Richard A. Andrews has declined an offer.