Precriminations

By Dana Milbank
Sunday, February 19, 2006

The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll found that, approaching the midterm elections, Democrats enjoy their biggest advantage over Republicans in 14 years. Issue after issue -- Hurricane Katrina, Iraq, Jack Abramoff and now Harry Whittington -- gives the opposition party a potential advantage. And then there's the historical advantage enjoyed by the opposition in the elections midway through an incumbent president's second term. To some, this might be cause for celebration. But not to Democrats. Beaten in the last three election cycles, the party has a serious insecurity complex. Convinced they will face another disappointment in November, Democrats are already busy figuring out who among them should be blamed for the inevitable defeat. Here's a guide for handicapping the Democratic precriminations. -- Dana Milbank

It's Hillary's fault.

The former first lady, now senator from New York, is locking up most of the party's best advisers for a likely 2008 presidential run. Problem is, along with President Bush, she's among the most polarizing figures in the country. And she's doing much to reinforce that reputation. She compared the Republican-controlled House to a "plantation," and she called the Bush administration "one of the worst" in history. That plays well with Democratic partisans -- the ones needed to win the party's nomination -- but can alienate swing voters. That's who Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman was speaking to when he observed that Clinton "seems to have a lot of anger." Centrist Democrats like those backing former Virginia governor Mark Warner or former senator John Edwards (N.C.) for president agree with that assessment -- and they're ready to blame Clinton if things go badly in November.

It's Bill's fault.

Isn't it always? When he was president, Clinton earned the ire of fellow Democrats for "triangulating" -- portraying himself as the middle ground between feuding Democrats and Republicans. This boosted Clinton politically but, many of his colleagues complained, at the expense of party unity. Now his colleagues are grumbling that the charitable work he's doing with George H.W. Bush to aid tsunami and Hurricane Katrina victims has fortified President Bush's standing and given the president a veneer of bipartisanship. Also in the blame-Bill camp: some Hillary supporters who think the former president is eclipsing his wife's prospective candidacy -- as he did when he outshined her at Coretta Scott King's funeral.

It's Lieberman's fault.

Now that Georgia's Bush-endorsing Zell Miller is gone, Joe Lieberman is the Republicans' favorite Democrat in the Senate. And that's poisonous among Democratic partisans. Lieberman seems to relish the role, publishing an opinion article in the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial pages defending Bush's policies in Iraq. That led Bush to quote Lieberman at length in his speeches. "One of those who has seen [Iraq's] progress is Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman," Bush begins. He then quotes Lieberman saying "what a colossal mistake it would be for America's bipartisan political leadership to choose this moment in history to lose its will." Then, Bush closes with "Senator Lieberman is right." For liberal Democrats who would like to make the Iraq war the central issue of the campaign, Lieberman is the one to blame.

It's Reid's fault.

Harry Reid, the Senate minority leader, has a hot temper. He has called Bush a "liar" and a "loser" and labeled Alan Greenspan a "hack." Recently, he sent apology letters to 33 Republican senators after he issued a report on Republicans' "abuse of power" that identified individual GOP senators for such things as contributions received from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Reid is somewhat vulnerable when it comes to the Abramoff affair, because he wrote letters helpful to Indian tribes represented by the lobbyist and because his staff had frequent contacts with Abramoff's team. Reid has refused to return donations from Abramoff clients. For House Democrats hoping to make corruption their theme of '06, Reid's actions help Republicans blunt the charge by making the scandal appear bipartisan.

It's Kerry's fault.

Democrats of most every stripe complain that their party's losing 2004 candidate, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, is opportunistically trying to score points with the party's liberal base at the expense of unity. First, he broke with others in the party and called for an explicit timeline for leaving Iraq; even Democrats who agreed with the policy said it wasn't convincing coming from the 2004 nominee, whose vacillations on Iraq were effectively skewered by Republicans during the campaign. Next, Kerry led a symbolic effort to filibuster the Supreme Court nomination of Samuel Alito. The effort split Democrats almost exactly in half and lost by an embarrassing 72 to 25 vote. Leaders in both chambers now say Kerry's freelancing is hurting their hopes of unifying the party for 2006.

It's Gore's fault.

Still? Certainly. The blame-Gore movement, dominant during Bush's first term, has declined with the rise of the blame-Kerry movement. But there are still a number of Democrats, some Hillary backers among them, who think he makes the party look a bit too wild. His alliance with the liberal group MoveOn.org has alienated the centrist Democratic Leadership Council types who once favored Gore. "Happening now: Al Gore unleashed," was how CNN's Wolf Blitzer referred to Gore's recent speech, in which the former vice president and presidential nominee accused the Bush administration of committing a crime. "What we do know about this pervasive wiretapping virtually compels the conclusion that the president of the United States has been breaking the law -- repeatedly and insistently," Gore pronounced.

It's Dean's fault.

Yeeeeee-aaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh!!!!! Democrats knew they were rolling the dice when they selected the self-proclaimed man from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party to become the Democratic National Committee chairman. But few expected Dean would announce a game of "hide the salami" on "Hardball." Dean's mouth has been regularly thrilling and chilling Democrats, most recently when he told a Texas radio station that the "idea that we're going to win the war in Iraq is an idea which is just plain wrong." Though that may well be true, it played into Bush's hands by allowing him to paint the Democrats as the party of defeat. The centrists think Dean's rhetoric -- "I hate the Republicans and everything they stand for" -- will make Democrats look like extremists in November.

It's Jefferson's fault.

No, not Thomas. The blame goes to Rep. William Jefferson, a Louisiana Democrat ensnared in a bribery probe. The scandals of Abramoff and Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham could help Democrats portray a Republican "culture of corruption," but Jefferson complicates things. The FBI raided his home last year and reportedly found a large quantity of cold, hard cash in his freezer. The investigation, involving business deals in Africa, has already produced a guilty plea by one of Jefferson's former staffers.

It's Murtha's fault.

Nobody doubts that Jack Murtha, a Democratic congressman from Pennsylvania, was acting on principle when he called for an immediate pullout from Iraq. The decorated veteran and longtime hawk has solid credentials on military matters. But his move allows Republicans to cry "cut and run" -- a dangerous charge in the swing districts where Democrats need to gain seats.

It's Pelosi's fault.

This is actually an extension of the blame-Murtha school. In endorsing Murtha's rapid pullout plan, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi put the Democratic leadership's imprimatur on what the Republicans' cry will certainly call a strategy of cut and run. Centrists in the party also fear that the California liberal makes them look too extreme; they worry about her boast that Democrats were able to "take down" Bush on Social Security, and her contention that "the war in Afghanistan is over."

It's Biden's fault.

Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, a dark horse presidential candidate in 2008, symbolizes what many rank-and-file Democrats say is a lack of focus for the party. Biden, the party's message meisters complain, is full of ideas but has trouble articulating them through his cluttered, self-absorbed rhetoric. During one 30-minute round of questioning Supreme Court nominee Alito, Biden managed only one question in his first 12 minutes, instead discoursing on his own Irish roots, his "Grandfather Finnegan," his son's college experience, his views about Princeton University and his thoughts on eyeglasses worn by his colleague Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.).

It's Rove's fault.

Nah, that's too obvious.

milbankd@washpost.com

Dana Milbank is a reporter for The Post's National staff.