In New Orleans Reelection Bid, Nagin Faces a Crowded Field

Mitchell Landrieu has had many political dealings with state and federal authorities, Erwin said. So has Nagin, of course. "Nagin has experience that nobody else has," Erwin said. And Nagin has dealt with every level of decision maker, including Bush.

But there are so many unknowns facing the next mayor. And, as with everything in New Orleans these days, so many complications. On the face of it, Forman would appear to have the support of the business community, but there are some who believe he did harm to the city's Chamber of Commerce when he was its president by not expanding its membership. And he has taken heat for running Mayor Marc Morial's controversial quest for a third term in 2001. Some local political analysts believe Landrieu could be hurt because of voter unrest over his senator sister, who some here feel has not been a strong leader since Hurricane Katrina.

Nagin has been reaching out to African American voters since his first election, in which he was supported by the white business establishment. But his efforts may have backfired when he declared weeks ago that blacks would come back to New Orleans, making it a "chocolate city."

He has since apologized. But, said Jeff Crouere, host of a local political talk show on radio: "He has endangered his base by that 'chocolate city' comment."

Race might be a deciding factor in the contest. But no one knows because no one is sure about the racial makeup of residents at the moment. The population of the city is less than half of what it was before Katrina, and residents are scattered throughout the country. It is unclear who is eligible to vote and how to get ballots to those who are out of town.

"Who is going to vote?" Erwin said.

The city faces monumental problems in the coming years -- in housing, employment, medical care, insurance and a public school system that was in decline even before the flooding.

Boulet said she got into the race because she believes that New Orleans's problems must be solved by New Orleanians. She said the city has to lure corporations to invest in the city's future. "I don't think the money is going to come from Washington," she said. But she added that outside investment is contingent on federal solutions to the city's disastrously unreliable levee system.

Steve Sabludowsky, of the local online political newsletter and Web site BayouBuzz, said that the campaign "is going to be inevitably dirty."

He said race will be the volatile issue. "People with race agendas are going to come out of the woodwork," he said.

The new mayor will be someone "who is given a lot of publicity," Crouere said, "but doesn't have much power. As a symbol and a leader, though, the mayor can be extremely powerful."