Lawrence 'Never Missed a Start,' Until Now

"Those are the worst words a ballplayer can hear," Lawrence said.

Fans of the Nats may want something to drink before and after midnight. You expect battles over stadium leases. But who expects to trade for a pitcher with a smooth, balanced three-quarter arm motion who has never felt a twinge of pain to suddenly feel that his shoulder was "on fire."

"It's killing me," said Lawrence, speaking of his emotions, not his arm. Beside him, comparing notes, towered 6-11 Jon Rauch, who twice has had labrum surgery and, last season, returned to the Nats "just" three months after such a surgery. It took Armas a season to return from a similar injury. However, for a pitcher such as Lawrence who throws in only the mid-80's, no comeback is a certainty. In fact, the history of labrum injuries would suggest he's more likely to come back a lesser pitcher.

In baseball, the swapping of three-legged mules is a venerable tradition. Did the Padres suspect they were passing damaged goods to the Nats, especially since Lawrence's record collapsed in the second half of '05? His typical 4.14 ERA in the first half disintegrated to 5.86 after the all-star break. Should Bowden have worried more about that uncharacteristic 7-15 record? How much weight do you give to the three hits and no runs Lawrence gave up in nine innings in his last Padre start? How hurt can you be and blank the Giants?

Lawrence had as clean a medical chart as you could find. But that doesn't mean savvy eyes couldn't have spotted some signs of deterioration in recent seasons. The Nats certainly didn't.

"I'm probably lucky to make it as long as I have," Lawrence said. "I've never even had pain -- anywhere, ever. As much torque as we put on our bodies, you never know when something might pop. I could pass a strength test right now."

Even though he'd never needed an MRI exam, Lawrence still had his suspicions. His family tolerance for pain is so high that his father once fell off his truck and broke his wrist, yet wanted to finish washing the vehicle before going to the hospital. Such toughness may have masked discomfort -- "Oh, I've had the usual aches" -- even from Lawrence himself.

"My first two years in the majors, I threw 87, 88 miles per hour," Lawrence said. "The next year I felt fine, but my fastball was down. The last three seasons I've been pitching at 83. Last year, in the second half, my arm was just a little tired. So in the offseason, I tried to tame it down, took a couple of extra weeks off. After [819 innings] in four years, it adds up.

"But I'd been throwing before I came here. I was ready for camp."

Now he has no idea what the future holds. His contract runs out this year.

"It's horrible timing," he said, knowing he'll feel the double pressure to rush back to help his new team and pitch for a next contract. "Hopefully, I won't come back too early.

"Some pitchers have come back better after this surgery," Lawrence said, looking for rainbows in a hurricane. "Maybe I'll get my same arm strength back. Two miles an hour back on your fastball is a big heap. It's all new to me. Tomorrow, we'll find out how bad it is."

The Nationals already know. How long can the team wait to start looking for another starter? Can they use spring training, plus April -- with all of its off days -- to rest pitchers, to find out if Jose Vidro is healthy enough to be trade material? Or do the Nats start looking at unpalatable alternatives, such as packaging the high-potential but often-injured Ryan Church for pitching?

"No, we can't wait," Bowden said. "We now have six [potential] starters [counting Rauch]. You want to go into the season with seven because two of them are going to get hurt."

And one, who would probably have been better than expected, already is.