By Thomas Boswell
Sunday, February 26, 2006
VIERA, Fla.
Outside Space Coast Stadium, the wind blew, drizzle fell and gray clouds covered the skies as a spring training day turned almost raw. Inside, the power went out as the Washington Nationals showered and dressed in their subterranean quarters. Cell phones were held up to provide light. "I guess MLB is cutting our budget again," came a voice from the locker room.
That's the last laugh the Nationals may have for a while. The bad news they got Saturday, that pitcher Brian Lawrence has a torn labrum and will be lost for at least half the season, may prove even more devastating than the team and its fans realize.
The Nats thought they had stolen Lawrence in an offseason trade for Vinny Castilla. He was going to be the crucial, inning-eating replacement for Esteban Loaiza. While Loaiza had the name, Lawrence had numbers.
In five seasons in San Diego, the little-known Lawrence had never missed a start and amassed a career ERA of 4.10, a full 50 points better than Loaiza's 4.60 and comparable to Livan Hernandez's career mark of 4.11. Compared with Lawrence, the rest of the Nats' rotation -- Tony Armas (4.32), Ramon Ortiz (4.72) and Ryan Drese (5.32) -- looks pale.
Sometimes, numbers don't lie. And in 146 starts, the speed-changing, corner-nibbling Lawrence, 29, already was ahead of Loaiza at a similar career juncture and appeared to be the most dependable of 200-inning acquisitions. The slim, 6-foot Lawrence was twice the Padres' Opening Day pitcher, once won 15 games for a lousy Padres club and, although not nearly gifted enough to be a top-of-the-rotation star, was just the kind of ballast the destabilized Washington boat desperately needed.
Lawrence's most attractive attribute was that he, in his words, "never missed a start." Over the last four seasons, he averaged 205 innings. With Hernandez and John Patterson at the top of the rotation, Lawrence's steady competence seemed to limit the Nats' chance of a disastrous '06. For morale's sake, the Nats are lucky they never learned what they had in Lawrence.
In one day, all that has changed. Where are you now, Tomo Ohka? The Nationals, already scrawny in their rotation, are now emaciated. As recently as Friday, the Nats could keep a straight face and still concoct scenarios in which they were a winning team, although Patterson presciently said that injuries to the rotation equaled "instant problems."
One reason the Nationals could take the calculated gamble of trading hitting -- Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge -- plus a pitching prospect for Alfonso Soriano was that Lawrence already was safely in hand. The Padres even picked up part of his salary.
"Even if he's your number five starter, you figure he gives you 200 innings," General Manager Jim Bowden said.
Not anymore. Depending on how bad the labrum tear turns out to be, Lawrence could lose half a year or the whole season.
"Nothing to eat or drink after midnight," a member of the Nationals medical staff said to Lawrence in the clubhouse.
"Those are the worst words a ballplayer can hear," Lawrence said.
Fans of the Nats may want something to drink before and after midnight. You expect battles over stadium leases. But who expects to trade for a pitcher with a smooth, balanced three-quarter arm motion who has never felt a twinge of pain to suddenly feel that his shoulder was "on fire."
"It's killing me," said Lawrence, speaking of his emotions, not his arm. Beside him, comparing notes, towered 6-11 Jon Rauch, who twice has had labrum surgery and, last season, returned to the Nats "just" three months after such a surgery. It took Armas a season to return from a similar injury. However, for a pitcher such as Lawrence who throws in only the mid-80's, no comeback is a certainty. In fact, the history of labrum injuries would suggest he's more likely to come back a lesser pitcher.
In baseball, the swapping of three-legged mules is a venerable tradition. Did the Padres suspect they were passing damaged goods to the Nats, especially since Lawrence's record collapsed in the second half of '05? His typical 4.14 ERA in the first half disintegrated to 5.86 after the all-star break. Should Bowden have worried more about that uncharacteristic 7-15 record? How much weight do you give to the three hits and no runs Lawrence gave up in nine innings in his last Padre start? How hurt can you be and blank the Giants?
Lawrence had as clean a medical chart as you could find. But that doesn't mean savvy eyes couldn't have spotted some signs of deterioration in recent seasons. The Nats certainly didn't.
"I'm probably lucky to make it as long as I have," Lawrence said. "I've never even had pain -- anywhere, ever. As much torque as we put on our bodies, you never know when something might pop. I could pass a strength test right now."
Even though he'd never needed an MRI exam, Lawrence still had his suspicions. His family tolerance for pain is so high that his father once fell off his truck and broke his wrist, yet wanted to finish washing the vehicle before going to the hospital. Such toughness may have masked discomfort -- "Oh, I've had the usual aches" -- even from Lawrence himself.
"My first two years in the majors, I threw 87, 88 miles per hour," Lawrence said. "The next year I felt fine, but my fastball was down. The last three seasons I've been pitching at 83. Last year, in the second half, my arm was just a little tired. So in the offseason, I tried to tame it down, took a couple of extra weeks off. After [819 innings] in four years, it adds up.
"But I'd been throwing before I came here. I was ready for camp."
Now he has no idea what the future holds. His contract runs out this year.
"It's horrible timing," he said, knowing he'll feel the double pressure to rush back to help his new team and pitch for a next contract. "Hopefully, I won't come back too early.
"Some pitchers have come back better after this surgery," Lawrence said, looking for rainbows in a hurricane. "Maybe I'll get my same arm strength back. Two miles an hour back on your fastball is a big heap. It's all new to me. Tomorrow, we'll find out how bad it is."
The Nationals already know. How long can the team wait to start looking for another starter? Can they use spring training, plus April -- with all of its off days -- to rest pitchers, to find out if Jose Vidro is healthy enough to be trade material? Or do the Nats start looking at unpalatable alternatives, such as packaging the high-potential but often-injured Ryan Church for pitching?
"No, we can't wait," Bowden said. "We now have six [potential] starters [counting Rauch]. You want to go into the season with seven because two of them are going to get hurt."
And one, who would probably have been better than expected, already is.
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