Democrats Look for Historic Shift in Governors' Races

Schwarzenegger's star power and California's size command national attention, but there are other compelling story lines in other states. Republicans have two African Americans -- former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Lynn Swann and Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell -- running for governor this year. Former Massachusetts governor William F. Weld (R) has changed addresses and is trying to become governor of New York but must get through a GOP primary first. Close to home, Maryland Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. ranks among the most endangered Republican incumbents in a heavily Democratic state.

Even before the main events of November, both parties face difficult and potentially nasty primaries. Ohio Republicans got a taste last week, when Blackwell launched radio and TV ads accusing his opponent, state Attorney General Jim Petro, of having ethics worse than the incumbent governor, Republican Bob Taft, who pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor ethics violation last year and whose approval ratings have plunged toward single digits. Blackwell's ads drew a reprimand from Ohio Republican Party chairman Robert T. Bennett.

Presidential politics come into play, as well. New Mexico's Richardson hopes to use his reelection campaign to launch a 2008 bid for the Democratic nomination. Three retiring governors -- Republicans Romney in Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee in Arkansas and Democrat Tom Vilsack in Iowa -- would like to enhance their possible candidacies in the same way that former Virginia governor Mark Warner (D) did his at the end of last year, by helping elect a successor on their way out the door.

The gubernatorial landscape tramples conventional notions of an America rigidly divided into red and blue. In the 19 Bush-won states with contests, Democrats hold seven of the governorships. In the 17 states won by Sen. John F. Kerry (D) with gubernatorial elections this year, Republicans hold 10 of the governorships.

Some of the most popular and politically secure Democratic governors facing reelection this year preside over states won by Bush in 2004. They include Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry and Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal. The same is true for many Republican governors in states won by Kerry, among them Connecticut Gov. M. Jodi Rell, Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle and Vermont Gov. Jim Douglas.

Nonetheless, Democratic hopes for gaining governorships begin in Blue America. The retirement of New York Gov. George E. Pataki (R) after 12 years -- he, too, has presidential ambitions -- gives the Democrats their best opportunity to pick up a seat. At this point, Eliot Spitzer, the state's aggressive attorney general, is the favorite to win the Democratic primary and the November election.

Romney's retirement after a single term to pursue his presidential ambitions gives the Democrats a second clear target in a heavily Democratic state. But Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in the Massachusetts since 1986, in spite of the state's liberal leanings.

Ohio, which frustrated Democratic hopes of taking back the White House in 2004, is another state poised to shift parties. The corruption scandals surrounding the Taft administration are dragging down all Republicans this year, and Democratic Rep. Ted Strickland (Ohio) can spend his time raising money and getting organized while Blackwell and Petro go after one another.

Democrats see opportunities in two other states -- Maryland and Minnesota -- with strongly Democratic traditions but GOP executives. But gaining a majority likely will also require Democrats winning on Republican-tilting turf.

Their best opportunities at this point are in Arkansas, Colorado and Nevada. Florida is a target, given its importance in presidential elections. But even with Gov. Jeb Bush (R) retiring, the GOP has an advantage, if for no other reason than both Republicans running for the nomination have been elected statewide, while neither Democrat is well known around the state.

Special correspondent Chris Cillizza and researcher Zachary A. Goldfarb contributed to this report.