Va., Md. Revising Diploma Counts

Maryland's State Department of Education reported that 54,170 of 63,860 students in the class of 2005, or 85 percent, reached graduation. Virginia reported a graduation rate of 77 percent, or 76,866 of 100,230 students that year. D.C. schools claimed a 72 percent graduation rate in 2004, the most recent data published.

Comparing area graduation rates with those of other states is difficult, however, because many of the figures are deemed inaccurate by researchers. It is estimated that about two-thirds of high school students graduate nationwide.

Some critics cite the Urban Institute report as evidence that graduation rates reported by Prince George's schools -- 89 percent in 2002, 87 percent in 2005 -- may be as much as 20 points too high. The report estimated Anne Arundel's graduation rate at 69 percent, in contrast to the 83 percent reported last year by the school system.

In candid written testimony before the Maryland House, the Anne Arundel school system acknowledged that its graduation and dropout rates did not seem to add up. The system reported 577 dropouts in 2005, for a dropout rate of 2.3 percent. Extended across four years, that figure should complement the system's 83 percent graduation rate but does not.

Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez (D-Montgomery), who introduced the Maryland legislation, spent eight years on the Montgomery County school board. "Every time I asked for dropouts, everybody would roll their eyes," she said. "Nobody wanted to talk about it."

She said she learned that there were "about 53 different codes" for students who left the public school system. "Of those codes, about four or five would be counted as dropouts," Gutierrez said. "In other words, you had to put on a sweatshirt that said 'dropout' and then jump up and down about five or six times to be counted as a dropout."

Public school administrators say their methods for reporting dropouts and graduates, while not perfect, are fundamentally sound.

The education departments in Virginia and Maryland instruct schools to label students as dropouts if they cannot be located and to exclude those who earn General Education Development diplomas from the graduation rolls, resulting in a comparatively conservative count of total graduates.

"We're pretty confident that we're pretty accurate from year to year in Maryland," said Gary Heath, assistant state superintendent for accountability and assessment.

Critics do not entirely disagree. The Urban Institute study put Maryland, Virginia and the District far down the list of states that appear to inflate their graduation rates.

Each camp disputes the other's methods. Incomplete dropout data tend to inflate state-issued graduation rates. Most scholarly estimates of student attrition, in turn, are skewed by a statistical "bubble" of students who repeat the ninth grade, resulting in a graduation rate that may be artificially low.

"It's really difficult for students and parents and, frankly, administrators to measure success and what's working and what's not working," said Virginia Del. William H. Fralin Jr. (R-Roanoke), who introduced legislation to change how the graduation rate is calculated.

The proposed formula, endorsed by the National Governors Association, is fairly simple: divide the number of on-time graduates by the number of students who started the ninth grade four years earlier, and add or subtract students who transfer in or out.

Virginia's Education Department supports the legislation, but lawmakers have squabbled over details. In Maryland, education officials support the measure but favor reducing it to a non-binding resolution. Both bills await decisive votes.

Patricia Wright, acting Virginia schools superintendent, said her system will adopt the new math by 2009, with or without a legislative mandate.

"The bill," she said, "is for emphasis."