What's Behind Those Bad Poll Numbers

Even more significantly, the way the port takeover was handled reinforced a growing impression among the public that nobody is really in charge in the Bush White House. How could the president not even have been consulted on an issue directly involving national security, Bush's strong suit in the minds of most Americans and especially most Republicans? The night after the story broke, comedian Jay Leno joked, "Do you know who's in charge of U.S. ports? Neither does President Bush."

For congressional Republicans like Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.), the port controversy provided a golden opportunity to distance themselves from the White House, and many of them jumped at the chance. And this revolt may not be as easy to quell as the Miers rebellion. The request by Dubai Ports World to delay the takeover for 45 days may simply have put off the inevitable confrontation between the president and Congress.

Unlike the president, congressional Republicans have to face the voters this November. Even though most represent safe Republican districts, only six Senate seats and 16 House seats would have to change hands to give Democrats control of Congress, and there is growing concern among Republicans that they could lose their grip on both chambers if the midterm election turns into a referendum on a president with approval ratings in the thirties or worse.

The risk for the White House is that a revolt by House and Senate Republicans could further undermine the president's standing among Republican voters, leading to a vicious cycle of declining popularity and declining congressional support.

It is probably too late for Bush to salvage any of his major domestic policy initiatives. Tax reform and Social Security reform have already been abandoned and health care savings accounts appear to be dead in the water. But if the president loses the confidence of Republicans, his effectiveness in foreign affairs may also be compromised. And with the nation facing a continuing threat from al-Qaeda as well as major challenges in the Middle East and elsewhere, a rerun of the Carter presidency is not in anyone's interest. In dangerous times, Americans of all parties place a high value on competence.

polsaa@emory.edu

Alan Abramowitz is a professor of political science at Emory University.