The Numbers, Gamed?

"The Missouri Valley needs to be studied," Saint Joseph's Coach Phil Martelli said. "How did they get there? What did they do? I do think we have to look at what is going on -- where are our numbers falling short? And we're going to need administrators at some schools to back their coaches. If there needs to be changes, let's make changes."

Elgin decided to make a change in early 2000 after seeing the Valley's nonconference strength-of-schedule ranking drop from eighth to 25th. The conference decided to withhold an annual $50,000 NCAA tournament distribution from programs that did not play a nonconference schedule consisting of opponents with a three-year average RPI of 149 or better. Two teams, Elgin said, did not make the cut. But Elgin ditched the policy after two years, and now the league office works in conjunction with teams to assemble nonconference schedules.

"They've outsmarted it? Good," said Thomas Yeager, the commissioner of the Colonial Athletic Association. "A lot of these coaches from bigger programs think [at-large bids are] a birthright in their league or in their program. Look at some of the nonconference schedules they play. The home team wins two out of every three games, regardless of whether you are Duke or St. Mary's of the Swamp. If I'm sitting in one of those power leagues, all I'm trying to do is hold serve at home and maybe sweep a couple of the bottom-feeders. You have teams coming out of the Colonial and the Valley that are crashing the party, and some of the guys that might get squeezed out don't think it's right."

Critics affiliated with larger conferences say Valley teams rarely play stiff competition outside their conference. But, as Yeager explained, some big programs routinely avoid strong smaller programs to "go find Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs to play."

Williams said the ACC and its teams need to examine the RPI and decide whether it is beneficial to continue to schedule difficult nonconference opponents. Williams suggested that it might be better to play a lower-ranked team on the road, even though that takes away one revenue-generating home game.

Williams, who compared the RPI to the Da Vinci Code, also said the ACC should consider lobbying for its teams more aggressively because the MVC has "done a great job publicity-wise, I'll say that for them."

"Somebody has" beaten the RPI, Williams added. "The Missouri Valley has. I've looked at all their schedules. They didn't play anybody. If they would have played all the Big Ten teams or something, then that's different. The only thing I can figure, and I don't know if this is true, is if you lose to a team with a pretty good RPI, that's better than beating a team that has a low RPI. If you look at our league, those stats, what's the problem?"

Consider the top six teams in the Valley and the ACC, all potential NCAA tournament teams. The ACC group played 43 games against top 50 competition, including 13 opponents outside the ACC. The Valley group played 68 games against top 50 competition, but only eight opponents outside the Valley. In games against top 50 teams outside their conference, the Valley group is 4-4 and the ACC group is 9-4.

One outcome that significantly helped the Valley came when Northern Iowa won at highly rated Louisiana State on Dec. 19. Northern Iowa Coach Greg McDermott and Elgin had discussed whether to schedule the game, but Elgin felt the decision was a "lobbed softball" because the Panthers were experienced and many of the Tigers' fans were expected to be away for the holidays.

"We rolled the dice, and it worked out," McDermott said. "Not only has it benefited us, but everyone in our league has benefited."

The victory lifted Northern Iowa to 11th in the RPI rankings, which meant every other Valley team would benefit from playing, and beating, the Panthers during the conference season. In turn, other Valley teams would then be rewarded for playing other teams that beat Northern Iowa, which finished 11-7 in conference play.

"They study the RPI and the mechanics and know the formula," said Craig Thompson, the Mountain West Conference commissioner and a former chair of the selection committee. "They start out the conference with a high RPI, then when they keep playing each other it's like a vortex, just feeding on itself. I don't know if that's outsmarting it, but they've done a great job utilizing the formula."

The "vortex" effect, in which conference teams benefit from playing each other, is nothing new to college basketball -- it has helped power conferences for years -- but it is a change for the Valley, which has not been this deep in the past. Another change will come this week, Wichita State Coach Mark Turgeon noted, when a half-dozen Valley teams start rooting for teams in other conference tournaments, all in the interest of improving seeding or receiving an at-large berth. And when the committee reveals the 65-team field next Sunday, they will find out how much strength there is in numbers.

"If you look at the RPI, look at the strength of schedules, look at what our conference has done, I rest on that," Hinson said. "If I were in a court of law, I would look at the judge and look at the jury and say, 'Your Honor and ladies and gentleman of the jury, I rest my case.' "