Thursday, March 9, 2006

THAKSIN SHINAWATRA has poorly served Thailand's fragile democracy during his five years as prime minister. He monopolized television media and bullied or bought opponents in the parliament and independent press. He launched a "war on drugs" that led to the assassination of some 2,500 suspected traffickers by government-backed death squads. His campaign against Muslim insurgents spawned still more human rights abuses, including the suffocation of 78 prisoners in government custody. He has been cozy with the ruling generals of neighboring Burma. We have criticized him on all these grounds as well as the Bush administration for embracing him in spite of these failings.

Mr. Shinawatra nevertheless has been democratically elected twice, the last time by a large margin. In response to mounting criticism and street protests by his opposition, he has called a vote for early next month. Opposition parties have responded by announcing a boycott and by organizing still-larger protests, including a march by nearly 100,000 people Sunday in Bangkok. Another big one is planned for next week. Mr. Thaksin's adversaries clearly hope to force him from office through the use of "people power," which has driven pro-democracy revolutions in Thailand and several other Southeast Asian countries during the past two decades. But that's the wrong answer.

Protest leaders claim that they can't support new elections because elections won't change the political system Mr. Thaksin has manipulated to his advantage. They point out that he appointed cronies to bodies that will supervise the balloting. But a glance at opinion polls makes it hard not to suspect another motive: In any fair vote, Mr. Thaksin would easily win. Though he is held in contempt by the capital's elite and middle classes, the prime minister is strongly supported in the countryside, where his populist policies have brought real improvements. By skipping the election the opposition simply concedes the prime minister a still more dominating position in parliament. Trying to oust him through street demonstrations risks destabilizing violence or intervention by the Thai military, which ruled the country before an eruption of people power in 1992.

Such rebellions are a good answer to dictators, but they are self-defeating in a democracy. They weaken the authority of elections and invite opponents of even scrupulous governments to raise mobs rather than canvass voters. The right way to oppose Mr. Thaksin is to embrace the elections he has offered, along with his proposal to establish a commission to prepare constitutional reforms. The Thai political system needs better checks and balances to prevent further abuses by Mr. Thaksin and future prime ministers. But a street revolution isn't likely to bring them about.