Money's Going to Talk in 2008

Take Bayh's schedule over a week last month. After appearing on a Sunday morning talk show on Feb. 19, Bayh flew to Fort Lauderdale for a reception and dinner hosted by Mitchell W. Berger, a lawyer and a leading fundraiser for Kerry and former vice president Al Gore.

The following day Bayh headed to Los Angeles, where he stayed for five days. He met with a Who's Who of West Coast money men, including DreamWorks co-founder David Geffen, Phoenix Pictures head Mike Medavoy, 20th Century Fox co-Chairman James W. Gianopulos and Artists Production Group executive Mark Canton. After spending the weekend in Washington, D.C., Bayh flew to New York on Sunday, Feb. 26. He met with prospective donors on Monday and returned to Washington late Monday night.

"It's the organizational prowess and ability to put together a national organization to raise money that is the real test, and it's that ability that translates into dough," said an adviser to a potential 2008 Republican candidate.

The standards of the "money primary" vary depending on a candidate's strategy. For a front-runner, $100 million by Dec. 31, 2007, may be the goal, but candidates trying merely to become the main challenger face a lower hurdle.

Ron Kaufman, who is helping Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) explore a bid, said the competition to become the challenger would require much less because $40 million to $50 million is more than enough to compete in the early caucuses and primaries. A victory early on would spark a financial outpouring to sustain the remainder of the campaign.

Kaufman's view was shared by supporters of Sen. Clinton, who is expected to have little trouble raising $100 million by the end of 2007 if she runs. The Clinton backers said a legitimate challenger to her would need to raise between $35 million and $40 million to finance strong campaigns in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states.

If the pattern of 2004 holds for 2008, the huge surge in small donations over the Internet and through direct mail will not begin until two candidates have effectively locked up their respective nominations, probably in early March 2008.

Before then, candidates will be much more dependent on raising large contributions of up to $4,000; a candidate preparing to reject the general election public subsidy can accept a maximum of $4,000 from an individual -- $2,000 for the primary and $2,000 for the general election campaign. (The money collected for the fall campaign must be kept in a separate account and returned to donors if the candidate fails to win the nomination.)

One of the least known but most important dimensions of the early competition to raise cash is securing the support of men and women who have proven effective in the past at raising large sums -- usually from a well-tended network of business associates, corporate subordinates and clients.

The 2004 Bush campaign designated these people as "Pioneers" (raised $100,000), "Rangers" ($200,000) and "Super Rangers" ($300,000).

Texas lawyer Thomas G. Loeffler, a Bush Ranger in 2004, has already signed on to help Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008; Northern Virginia real estate developer Dwight C. Schar, a Ranger in 2004, was on the host committee for a Super Bowl fundraiser to benefit Sen. George Allen (R-Va.). A senior GOP strategist said these Bush backers undoubtedly are "being swarmed over" by the president's would-be successors.

The 2008 fundraising marathon has its roots in the 2000 GOP nominating contest. Determined not to be outdone by publisher Steve Forbes's ability to self-finance a campaign, Bush opted out of the federal matching funds system for the Republican nomination. Instead, he raised $70 million in 1999 -- then a staggering new record -- and $101.5 million by the time he received the nomination. Since then, a GOP operative said, other front-runners have been tempted to intimidate rivals with a "shock and awe" approach to early fundraising.

Former Vermont governor Howard Dean caused a sensation on the Democratic side by raising $41 million by the end of 2003 for his presidential campaign, much of it in small donations from grass-roots activists. Though that was double what eventual nominee Kerry raised in 2003, that kind of money almost certainly will turn no heads in the next cycle.