Duke-Texas Is Clear, GW Less So

The shot CBS showed last night of the George Washington bracket party was, to put it mildly, telling. On cue, the cheerleaders and students, clearly paying more attention to the camera than the bracket, began cheering. Karl Hobbs and his players just stared at the screen in disbelief. Here's what they were thinking: "We're an 8? We're 26-2, one of those losses was without a key player, and we're an 8?!"

Yup, they're a No. 8 seed and the reason they're an 8 isn't because of Pops Mensah-Bonsu's knee. It's because the Colonials opted to play a ridiculously easy nonconference schedule and then had the misfortune to dominate a conference that was having a down year. If Craig Littlepage, the selection committee chairman, said nothing else worthwhile while under attack by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer for the number of mid-majors in the field, his point about the "rigor" of nonconference schedules was important. GW's schedule was ranked 207th in the country.

GW could lose its first-round game to North Carolina Wilmington. It could also win that game and upset Duke in the second round. A lot will depend on the state of Mensah-Bonsu's knee; more will depend on the state of the Colonials' minds. UNC Wilmington is an experienced team with guards who can handle GW's pressure -- but not for 40 minutes if GW plays the way it can when at its best. At their best, the Colonials have the kind of depth and ability to penetrate the lane that can give Duke trouble. (See Miami three days ago.) If Karl Hobbs can get his team to stop worrying about its seed, GW is a dangerous floater. If not, it could be floating -- in a basketball sense -- face down by Thursday night.

The other first-round games worth watching in this bracket are Syracuse-Texas A&M and LSU-Iona. Given the kind of roll Syracuse is on, the Orange is going to be a popular pick to go deep in the tournament. But it also might lose to A&M because history shows that teams that play their way in through a conference tournament often have letdowns. LSU should handle Iona easily, which is no doubt what LSU will be thinking. Iona's best center is Jeff Ruland -- its coach -- but it has senior guards and teams with senior guards always have a chance.

One other thing to look for in the first round: a quick departure by North Carolina State against California. The Wolfpack is in disarray, and everyone in the ACC is convinced Herb Sendek is leaving (Oregon State? Arizona State?) because he's sick of Wolfpack fans whining when he has been to five straight NCAA tournaments. Maybe the Wolfpack Wins One For The Herbster, but it doesn't seem likely.

Other than Duke-GW, the best potential second-round matchup is Iowa-West Virginia because the Mountaineers can beat anyone when their three-pointers are dropping. Steve Alford has never been to the round of 16 at Iowa, and this may be his last hurrah there before going to Indiana. He also has senior guards, though, so the Hawkeyes might get to the second week. Texas should reach the second week without breaking a serious sweat against Penn in the first round or the Cal-N.C. State winner in the next round.

In fact, it is tougher to see Texas losing before the region final than Duke. The Blue Devils could have trouble with either LSU or Syracuse in the round of 16 while Texas's most dangerous opponent would probably be West Virginia -- again, three point shooting. The committee clearly wants a Duke-Texas rematch because there is simply no way that it would be a 31-point game as it was in December. It's just too pat though; something is bound to happen. Maybe that something will be GW. It could be Iowa or West Virginia. Of course, if the pick here isn't Duke-Texas, it is probably a lock that it will be Duke-Texas.