Ray Gives Villanova a Healthy Shot

The outcome of this bracket may very well hinge on the condition of Allan Ray's eye. If he can get back to 100 percent by Sunday, the Wildcats have an excellent chance to reach their first Final Four since the "Miracle of Lexington" team 21 years ago. If not, Arizona is good enough to beat them in a second-round matchup of Wildcats, even in Philadelphia.

It certainly will be loads of fun for the winner of the dreaded play-in game (Monmouth-Hampton) to travel to Philadelphia to play Villanova in a first-round game. The game opposite that one -- Arizona-Wisconsin -- could be a pitcher's duel. Bo Ryan is a very tough NCAA tournament coach -- remember that his team was 60 seconds from the Final Four a year ago -- and Arizona is flighty. You can bet Villanova would rather play Wisconsin in the second round. If not, Arizona on a hot day -- especially if Ray still is hurting -- could pull the upset.

Nevada is a No. 5 seed based on past history -- a second-round victory over Gonzaga two years ago, a win over Texas last year -- even though the committee claims history doesn't matter. It should win another first-round game this year against Montana, but it isn't going to beat Boston College in the second round. The Eagles are a tough, experienced and well-coached team. They will give Villanova all it can handle if the two meet in the round of 16 and are capable of pulling an upset because Craig Smith and Jared Dudley will be very hard for the Wildcats to guard.

Looking for a first-round upset? Here's one: Wisconsin- M ilwaukee over Oklahoma. The Panthers aren't as good as they were a year ago, but Oklahoma is as soft a No. 6 seed as you will find. The Sooners won about a million one-point games against mediocre teams in the Big 12 (that would be the entire conference except Texas and Kansas) and just aren't that good.

A word here on those who will whine about the ACC, the Big 12 and the Pacific-10 only getting four bids apiece: CBS's Billy Packer immediately put out the theory that the seven mid-major reps on the 10-person committee have turned the tournament over to the mid-majors by taking four teams from the MVC, two from the CAA, two from the Mountain West and two from the WAC.

In fact, what the committee did was, for once, give the mid-majors a fair shake. One shouldn't lose sleep over Florida State, Maryland, Cincinnati or Michigan being left out. Each had its fate in its own hands this past weekend and failed miserably -- with the exception of Cincinnati, which lost because of a miraculous shot. They just didn't get enough quality wins and, as selection committee chairman Craig Littlepage points out, each had the opportunity to play more quality nonconference opponents but chose not to.

The dangerous floater here is Florida, which stumbled in February, then won the Southeastern Conference tournament and has a lot of talent. One NBA scout watched the Gators recently and said they had more pro prospects than anyone in the country. They should cruise to the Sweet 16 and could meet Ohio State there. They also could meet Georgetown. The Hoyas should not lose to Northern Iowa, a team that stumbled late in the season and needed double overtime and a good deal of luck to beat Bucknell at home in February. The Buckeyes would be a lot tougher out in the second round for the Hoyas, but they certainly have the talent to win that game. They're big enough to handle Ohio State inside, and they have experience on the perimeter, too.

Either way, the pick to make the region final from the bottom half of the draw still is Florida, flighty as the Gators can be. Their opponent might very well be Boston College.

Of course, if Georgetown could work its way to the region final, it might very well play Villanova. The last time those two teams played in the NCAA tournament was on a Monday night in April 21 years ago. This game might not be quite as memorable, but do you think perhaps CBS would like to see that matchup?