Hanging on Whose Words?

And Fisher triggered the largest single market reaction to any FOMC member's comments last year when his remarks in a CNBC interview last spring led many investors to conclude erroneously that the Fed was close to halting its series of increases in its influential benchmark short-term interest rate. Fisher said the Fed was then -- after eight consecutive rate increases -- "in the eighth inning" of that process.

Now, after 14 consecutive rate hikes since June 2004, Fed officials agreed at their January meeting that they are close to the end -- but they have not yet decided what that endpoint rate will be.

Bernanke indicated in Capitol Hill testimony last month that the FOMC is likely to raise the benchmark federal funds rate, the overnight rate on loans between banks, at least once more, to 4.75 percent at its meeting March 27-28 from 4.5 percent.

Futures contracts show the markets believe policymakers will probably lift the rate again in May to 5 percent. Higher rates slow economic growth and ease inflationary pressures by dampening consumer and business spending.

Meanwhile, analysts are scouring FOMC members' speeches for more hints of how high they are willing to go.

Chicago Fed Bank President Michael H. Moskow appeared to express support for another rate increase last week, saying in a speech, "With inflation near the upper end of my comfort zone, an unexpected increase in inflation would be a serious concern, while a decline in inflation would be beneficial."

Similarly, Janet L. Yellen, president of the Fed Bank of San Francisco, said in a speech Wednesday that fast growth and low unemployment could intensify inflationary pressures, and "additional inflationary pressures at this point would be particularly unwelcome because inflation is now toward the upper end of my comfort zone."

But Minneapolis Fed Bank President Gary H. Stern indicated that he might not favor another rate hike this month, telling Bloomberg News in a recent interview that each increase "is becoming a closer call."

Several officials have been more reticent, saying only that the decision will depend on how the economy develops.

"Our policy path over the coming period is somewhat less certain," Atlanta Fed Bank President Jack Guynn said in a speech Wednesday.

When speaking about the economic outlook, Fed officials have largely echoed Bernanke's upbeat assessment in February that the economy is off to a strong start this year and is likely to perform well in the months ahead, despite the risks of a slowing housing market and high energy prices.

"The economy is in something of a sweet spot right now," Dallas Fed Bank President Fisher said in a Feb. 23 speech.

Home prices are likely to rise more slowly this year, but that is not likely to restrain consumer spending enough to be "a significant concern," Poole said in a speech last week.

Another reason to listen to all the Fed policymakers more closely is the changing cast of characters at the FOMC, which has left analysts guessing who will be most influential in determining monetary policy.

Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson Jr. announced after the last Fed meeting in January that he will step down in April, triggering speculation that President Bush may elevate either board member Susan Schmidt Bies or board member Kohn to the No. 2 position.

The Fed board has gained two new members since the last FOMC meeting, Kevin M. Warsh and Randall S. Kroszner. And Philadelphia Fed Bank President Anthony M. Santomero is leaving his job at the end of this month.

The regional bank presidents are chosen by each bank's boards of directors, and the Philadelphia Fed Bank board has not chosen a successor to Santomero. Neither he nor Ferguson will attend the next meeting.

"The markets are paying much greater attention to what the other officials are saying now because we don't exactly know Bernanke's M.O.," said Richard Yamarone, director of research at Argus Research Corp. "In times of uncertainty, you have to take in as much information as you can."