FAQ: Israeli Elections
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Tuesday, March 28, 2006; 12:10 PM
What's at stake in the Israeli elections?
On March 28, voters chose a new 120-member parliament (the Knesset) that will, in turn, select a prime minister to succeed Ariel Sharon, the former prime minister who was incapacitated by a stroke on Jan. 4. More than 5 million people were eligible to vote at 8,280 regular polling stations throughout the region. Israeli Arabs, about 20 percent of the population were also eligible to vote.
Who is expected to win?
Kadima ("Forward"), was leading in the polls before Sharon fell into a coma. Polls show that it is likely to win 37 to 43 seats. Kadima is now led by acting prime minister Ehud Olmert. The liberal Labor Party, headed by trade union leader Amir Peretz, ran second with polls estimating them to pick up 19 to 21 seats. The conservative Likud Party, led by former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, was expected to win approximately 15 to 17 seats.
Why the shift in political parties?
Sharon broke from the Likud Party to form the centrist Kadima ("Forward") Party last fall after changing his mind about the wisdom of Israeli settlements in Palestinian areas. Long the leader of the settler movement, Sharon decided in 2003 that Israeli security required retrenchment to more defensible areas and ceding territory to Palestinian control. When implemented in Gaza last fall, his former supporters in Likud rebelled and tried to dump him as their leader. Sharon survived by gaining the support of Shimon Peres, his former adversary in the Labor Party. But when Amir Peretz ousted Peres as party leader in November, he withdrew Labor support. Sharon had to call for new elections and created a new party, drawing on allies in both Likud and Labor, to contest it.
Do the other parties matter?
Yes. Since it takes 61 seats in the Knesset to form a new government, the leading party is likely to need the support of smaller parties to elect their candidate as prime minister. These smaller parties range from leftist groups that favor creation of a Palestinian state (Meretz-Yachard and Hadash) to right-wing parties (National Union and Ysrael Beiteinu) that reject any negotiations with the Arabs. In between are religious parties (Shas and United Torah List) that emphasize piety more than security.
What are the differences between the leading candidates?
Olmert proposes to unilaterally withdraw from some Jewish settlements in the Palestinian West Bank and to incorporate others into the State of Israel.
Peretz agrees that Israel lacks a Palestinian partner but suggests that a more generous territorial compromise offer could change that. He says his government will seek to reverse the spread of poverty in Israel.
Netanyahu opposes all compromise with the Palestinians saying Sharon's decision to evacuate Gaza and turn the area over to Palestinian control was a dangerous mistake.
What are the key issues for voters?
Security remains the overriding issue in Israeli politics. With most Israelis believing that there is no political force among the Palestinians that is willing or able to negotiate a peace settlement, there is broad support for unilateral actions to separate Israelis from Palestinians such as the separation fence, which the Palestinians describe as an apartheid wall. Amir Peretz capitalized on dissatisfaction with the growing gap between rich and poor in Israel to win the Labor Party leadership, but polls suggest it has not greatly expanded his appeal with the general electorate.
What impact has Hamas' victory had on Israeli voters?
It gave a modest boost to the more right-wing parties, according to polls. But since most voters had already decided that there was no Palestinian partner, Hamas's success confirmed Israeli voter sentiment more than it moved it.
What impact will the election have in the region?
A Kadima victory would insure continuity of the current unilateral Israeli security policies. A Labor government would continue those unilateral policies but return more territory to Palestinians while seeking to aid lower-income Israelis. A Likud victory would probably kill Olmert's plans to evacuate West Bank settlements and would hasten confrontation with Palestinians.
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