Peruvian Election Primer

Round Two: Humala vs. Garcia

UPDATE: Former president Alan García defeated nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala in Sunday's runoff election, earning a second chance to lead the country he steered to economic devastation in the 1980s. Humala conceded defeat late Sunday after García led 55 percent to 45 percent with 77 percent of the votes counted. (Full Story; Monday, June 5, 2006)

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On June 4, Peruvians will return to the polls for the second round of the presidential election. The candidates have now been whittled down from 30 to two: nationalistic ex-military commander Ollanta Humala and charismatic former president Alan Garcia.

Who is likely to win according to the polls?

Although Humala was the leader in the first round with 31 percent of the vote, polls consistently peg Garcia, who took 24 percent in the first round, as the victor. APOYO polls in the last two weeks consistently give Garcia a lead of 56 to 44 percent, while the University of Lima shows Garcia with an advantage of 62 to 38 percent. The same polls suggest that about 1 in 5 voters are undecided.

Can polls be trusted?

No. Peruvians polls are notoriously unreliable. Peruvians are known to make up their minds in the final days before an election and pollsters rarely reach the 20 percent of voters in the most remote areas of the country. Because isolated, low-income voters are most likely to vote for Humala, he could be further ahead than current polls suggest

ALAN GARCIA

The candidate of Peru's only well institutionalized party, the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance, the charismatic former president has promoted himself as a wise elder statesman who has learned from his mistakes. His missteps are not easy to forget; the leader of one of the worst governments in Peruvian history, from 1985 to 1990, he presided over economic chaos and the rise of Shining Path rebel violence. When he left office, the economy was in ruins, with inflation at more than 7,000 percent and corruption rampant.

Considered a radical leftist twenty years ago, next to Humala, the newly transformed Garcia now comes across as a moderate. Promising to represent the poor, as well as international investors, business leaders and property owners, he says he can decrease Peru's wealth gap while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

 In part due to his openness to signing a free trade agreement with the United States, Garcia has provoked the ire of Hugo Chavez; Venezuela's president has said he will withdraw his ambassador to Peru if Garcia wins the runoff. The conflict between the two politicians may have actually been beneficial to Garcia, however, by allowing the talented orator to define himself as the level-headed alternative to Chavez's extremism.

OLLANTA HUMALA

The candidate of the Union for Peru party has sparked both fear and admiration across the continent. Echoing the anti-establishment rhetoric of Bolivia's Evo Morales and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, he has promoted himself as the dark-skinned representative of the masses. He has emphasized wealth redistribution and government reform, pledging to nationalize strategic sectors of the economy, such as mining and gas, and to rewrite Peru's constitution.

A former army officer, he entered the national spotlight in 2000 when he led a failed coup against Alberto Fujimori. His autocratic tendencies and open admiration of military dictator Gen. Juan Velasco, who ruled Peru with an iron hand from 1968 to 1975, have sparked alarm bells amongst journalists, academics, and business leaders.

Like other populist, anti-imperialist politicians in Latin America, he has been highly critical of the United States; he opposes the U.S.-backed eradication of coca and the U.S.-Peru free trade agreement supported by outgoing President Alejandro Toledo.

What's at stake for Peru?

The campaign has been, in many ways, more about personalities than policies. A key issue for all candidates, however, is poverty alleviation. Though Peru has experienced significant economic growth over the past few years, 54 percent of the population lives in poverty according to a 2006 United Nations Development Program report. A recent rise in exports (in particular gold, minerals and foodstuffs), foreign investment, and tax revenue has not improved living conditions for the average Peruvian. Both candidates have promised to create new jobs and narrow the wealth gap, with Humala focusing most overtly on nationalization of key industries and land redistribution and  Garcia emphasizing the importance of fiscal discipline, international investment and moderate social policies.  

What's at stake for the United States?

The United States and Peru struck a free trade agreement last December, a move intended to solidify U.S.-Peruvian relations and, eventually, to facilitate a broader U.S.-Andean trade pact. While  Garcia supports the agreement, Humala is determined to prevent it. Though Humala's actions may not pan out to be as potent as his rhetoric, if elected he would bolster a preexisting alliance of extremely nationalistic, anti-Washington governments formed by Venezuela's Chavez, Cuba's Castro and Bolivia's Morales.

MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES

American Popular Revolutionary Alliance 

APRA is Peru's oldest and only well-institutionalized party. The party was founded in 1924 as an anti-imperialist solution to Peru's problems. Considered a radical left-wing movement in the early 1930s, it gathered substantial mass support and by the 1950s, evolved into a slightly left-of-center, middle-class organization with a strong labor base. Consequently, the party lost some of its most talented young leaders to the Marxist left. In 1985, Alan Garcia became the first Aprista leader to assume the presidency. His widespread popularity was viewed as the principal reason for the party's unprecedented sweep of municipal elections in 2001. Despite Garcia's disastrous first presidency, and his failed bid against Alejandro Toledo five years ago, APRA is counting on him once again.

Union for Peru

The UPP party was formed in 1994 as a campaign vehicle for Javier Perez de Cuellar. The former UN secretary general captured 21 percent of the vote, a distant second to Fujimori. In 2006, the UPP aligned itself with the Peruvian National Party and endorsed Ollanta Humala for president.

Peru Posible

Peru Posible was founded in 1999 by outgoing president Alejandro Toledo. The party has suffered as Toledo's approval rating has plummeted. While Peru's first democratically elected president of Indian descent managed to keep the economy healthy and spur gross domestic product growth at an average of 4.5 percent a year, frustration grew among workers who did not reap the fruits of Peru's macroeconomic success. A string of scandals and allegations of corruption damaged his party's reputation further and pushed his approval ratings into the single digits.  The party's 2006 presidential candidate, Rafael Balaunde Aubry, pulled out of the race Jan. 31.

National Unity

The center-right National Unity alliance was founded in 2001 by presidential candidate Loudes Flores. The former congresswoman was an early front-runner in the polls, but was damaged by a reputation as the "candidate of the rich." She garnered 23.8 percent of the votes, one half of a percentage point less than Garcia, putting her into third place and knocking her off the final ballot. Her coalition includes the Christian People's Party, the National Solidarity Party and the National Renewal Party and is expected to lead the way in the congressional elections.

SOURCES:

News and Wire Reports, CIA World Fact Book, U.S. Department of State, The Political Handbook of the World, IPSOS, World Markets Research Centre, United Nations Development Program, Council on Foreign Relations

USEFUL ONLINE RESOURCES:

 The University of British Columbia Peru Election Resource

 Living in Peru