Centrist Faces the GOP's Iraq Problem

Polls show that the war is deeply unpopular in Connecticut, even more so than it is nationwide. A Quinnipiac University survey in February found that 61 percent of state residents believe that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, while 66 percent disapprove of how Bush is handling the war.

Antiwar sentiment in Connecticut is more intense than it was two years ago, noted Ken Dautrich, a professor of public policy at the University of Connecticut. "Farrell almost beat Shays when it wasn't as difficult an issue," Dautrich said. "Now the war is the dominant issue on voters' minds."

In a move widely interpreted as an acknowledgment of his vulnerability, Shays recently endorsed the reelection of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), a conservative Democrat whose position on Iraq is similar to Shays's. "That was to let Democrats know, here's a Democrat who voted for the war," said John Orman, a political scientist at Fairfield University, which is in Shays's district.

Making the rounds in his district, Shays gives few clues about his political affiliation. Speaking to a Greenwich High School science class recently, he praised former Democratic vice president Al Gore for knowing more about the environment "than anyone in public life." A few hours later at Wilton High School, he told a government class that Bush was in "a fog" after Hurricane Katrina, referred to Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) as "corrupt" and said of the war on terrorism, "I don't think it's been a great success."

Speaking to 250 retirees who belong to a civic group called Y's Men of Westport, Shays offered a lengthy critique of Bush's war management.

On the administration's assertion that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, he told the crowd, "We were wrong, and the president lost credibility." He questioned whether Bush's inner circle had failed to level with him. "The president values loyalty above everything else," Shays said. "But loyalty can't trump competence, and loyalty can't trump the truth."

Shays, 60, a onetime Peace Corps volunteer and state representative, traces his support for the war to when he became chairman of the House Government Affairs subcommittee on national security in the late 1990s. He became alarmed by a pattern of al-Qaeda attacks, and after Sept. 11, 2001, he concluded that a decisive and powerful military response was required. He said he views the decision to invade Iraq in that context.

Audience members in Westport were skeptical. One man announced, "I have trouble with this idea that we have a responsibility of bringing democracy to Iraq." Shays countered that "we have a strategic, absolute vital interest" in the Middle East. When another man complained about Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Shays nodded and said, "I have little to no confidence in his basic ability to be a leader without arrogance."

Some audience members bristled when Shays equated the Iraq war to the United States' battle for independence from England. Ted Diamond, a World War II combat veteran, told Shays he thought the comparison was far-fetched. "Under ideal circumstances, we will continue to transfer more power to Iraqis," Shays responded.

"He's very personable, but he talks around the issue," Diamond said later, sounding unimpressed.

Bill Crowther, a self-described "dyed-in-the-wool conservative Republican," left the session frustrated. "I don't think the administration has articulated clearly enough the things it espouses," Crowther said.

His friend Jack Gibbons, a Korean War combat vet, said he agreed with Shays that "once you've started a fight, you've got to stay to the end." Another in the group, Alan Stoltz, said in Shays's defense, "He speaks his mind, and that's important." But John Sach said he was having second thoughts about the congressman because of his association with Bush: "This arrogance, this lack of understanding. This man knows nothing of what war is all about."

John Fabrizi, Bridgeport's Democratic mayor, called Farrell the underdog, given Shays's long tenure in office, likable personality and generally mainstream views. On the other hand, said Fabrizi, "people are way more upset" about the war than they were two years ago.

In 2004, Farrell lost to Shays by about 14,000 votes -- but Democratic challenger John F. Kerry beat Bush easily in the district, by about 19,000 votes. "If Kerry voters come out for me, I win," Farrell said. "And then people can get that balance they say they want."