18 Vie in California Congressional Race

Result Watched as Signal for Fall

Francine Busby was the favorite to lead the Democratic field in the San Diego County district. (Denis Poroy - AP)

LOS ANGELES, April 11 -- In a race that could be a bellwether for the 2006 national elections, a low turnout gave an underdog Democratic candidate a large lead in the contest to replace convicted former congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R).

But with 7.4 percent of the precincts reporting, Francine Busby, a self-described soccer mom whom Cunningham trounced in 2004, had not garnered more than 50 percent of the vote, raising the prospect of a runoff June 6.

Eighteen candidates -- including 14 Republicans, two Democrats, one Libertarian and one independent -- were vying to represent California's 50th Congressional District. Among the Republicans, former representative Brian Bilbray and Internet multimillionaire Eric Roach, who has spent more than $1.7 million of his personal fortune, were in second and third places, respectively.

Nonetheless, Busby's 29,037 votes, or 42 percent, were more than the combined totals of her three closest Republican competitors.

Busby has run a race against what she calls the GOP's "culture of corruption," after Cunningham resigned and was sentenced to eight years in federal prison for accepting $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors. The Republicans, for their part, have sought to refocus the campaign on illegal immigration -- a hot topic in a county bordering Mexico and in a district that remains largely white and upper-middle-class.

The district is normally considered a safe seat for the GOP. Registration figures tilt largely Republican -- 44 percent to 30 percent, with 21 percent undecided. This year, however, Busby's message attracted a strong following. In 2004, she ran against Cunningham as a traditional liberal. But she remade herself as a centrist Democrat; her campaign ads do not mention her party, and she came out in favor of the repeal of inheritance taxes -- a big issue in a district where the median housing price exceeds $700,000.

Busby's unexpected success prompted the National Republican Congressional Committee to weigh in last week with $450,000 worth of attack ads, accusing Busby of pandering to lobbyists.

Before that, the national Democratic Party had given her some money and other support. National leaders, including Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) and Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, attended fundraisers on her behalf.

Most analysts say Tuesday is Busby's best chance to win. If the 55-year-old school board member does not garner 50 percent of the vote, there will be a runoff June 6 against the No. 2 candidate.

Last week, one poll put her at 45 percent. "We're just trying to get that extra five percentage points," she said.