By Richard Morin
Friday, April 14, 2006
Bad news for Michael S. Steele, the leading Maryland Republican candidate for Senate in November: The scuttling noise he hears on Election Day could be the sound of tens of thousands of white Republicans crossing over to vote for the Democrat.
In fact, white Republicans nationally are 25 percentage points more likely on average to vote for the Democratic senatorial candidate when the GOP hopeful is black, says economist Ebonya Washington of Yale University in a forthcoming article in the Quarterly Journal of Economics. White independents are similarly inclined to vote for the white Democrat when there's a black Republican running, according to her study of congressional and gubernatorial voting patterns between 1982 and 2000, including five Senate races in which the Republican nominee was black.
Her analysis suggests that GOP "white flight" in the Maryland Senate race could mean at least an additional 1 or 2 percent of the vote goes to the Democrat, and perhaps more -- but only if the candidate is white. Together, independents who would otherwise vote for a white Republican plus GOP deserters may easily swamp any increase in black Democratic crossover to Steele.
But racially motivated crossover voting is not just a Republican phenomenon. Democrats also desert their party when its candidate is black, Washington found. In House races, white Democrats are 38 percentage points less likely to vote Democratic if their candidate is black.
And don't expect turnout to surge among either blacks or whites in Maryland this November. Washington found that white and black turnout swells when the Democratic candidate for Senate is African American but is not significantly affected when the office-seeker is a black Republican.Learning the Wrong Things From Poetry
Fill your house with books if you want little Billy or Beth to grow up to be an academic all-star. Shakespeare is good. But stay away from poetry -- books of poesy on your shelves may dumb down your child.
A research team headed by demographer Jonathan Kelley, of Brown University and the University of Melbourne, analyzed data from a study of scholastic ability in 43 countries, including the United States. The data included scores on a standardized achievement test in 2000 and detailed information that parents provided about the family. The average student scored 500 on this test.
The researchers found that a child from a family having 500 books at home scored, on average, 112 points higher on the achievement test than one from an otherwise identical family having only one book -- and that's after they factored in parents' education, occupation, income and other things typically associated with a child's academic performance. The findings were presented last month at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America in Los Angeles.
Of course, it's not the number of books in the home that boosts student performance -- it's what they represent. The researchers say a big home library reflects the parents' dedication to the life of the mind, which probably nurtures scholastic accomplishment in their offspring.
They also found that not all books are created equal. "Having Shakespeare or similar highbrow books about bodes well for children's achievement," they wrote. "Having poetry books around is actively harmful by about the same amount," perhaps because it signals a "Bohemian" lifestyle that may encourage kids to become guitar-strumming, poetry-reading dreamers.
Still Time to Play the News Game
More than 800 people have played the News Game, the latest online experiment conducted by The Washington Post, washingtonpost.com and Stanford University's Political Communication Lab.
So why don't you play? These are serious experiments testing real hypotheses in the social sciences. We'll report the results in this column in a few weeks.
If you'd like to be one of our online lab rats, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/richmorin , look for the box headlined "Post-Stanford Experiments," and click on the link.
Who Would Have Thought?Rampage Killers, Tall Women And Decapitation Ads
· "Mass Homicide and Suicide: Deadliness and Outcome" by David Lester et al. Crisis Vol. 26, No. 4. Psychologists study cases of 98 lone, rampage killers in the United States from 1949 to 1999 and find that those killed by police murdered and wounded more victims than those who completed suicide, who, in turn, killed or wounded more victims than those who were captured. Rampaging killers who managed to kill themselves were less likely to be judged schizophrenic and more likely to have killed present or former co-workers.
· "Height in Women Predicts Maternal Tendencies and Career Orientation" by Denis K. Deady and Miriam J. Law Smith. Personality and Individual Differences No. 40. British researchers find that taller women are more likely than shorter women to value career and less likely to value having children or larger families.
· " 'You've Come a Long Way Baby': An Update on the Perpetuation of Decapitation Advertisement and Its Commodification of Female Sexuality in Las Vegas, Nevada," by Melanie Ann Hanson. Popular Culture Review Vol. 17, No. 1. A Sam Houston State University English professor is disturbed to find that many billboards and other advertising in Las Vegas feature scantily clad women photographed in a manner to emphasize their bodies but hide, obscure or otherwise downplay their heads or faces.