The Coming D.C. Shake-Up

The current shake-up in the White House can't match the changes that will take place in the D.C. government by year's end. The fall elections will produce a new crop of District leaders -- just in time to confront the kind of problems that can bring our city to its knees.

First the political shake-up.

Next January's swearing-in ceremonies will induct a new mayor, a new D.C. Council chairman and three new council members representing Wards 3, 5 and 6. To explain: Mayor Tony Williams (D) is not seeking reelection. Council Chairman Linda Cropp (D) and Vincent Orange (D-Ward 5) have decided against seeking reelection and instead are running for mayor. Kathy Patterson (D-Ward 3), rather than defending her seat, is running for council chairman. Sharon Ambrose (D-Ward 6) is retiring.

The changes don't end there. Two-term council member Adrian Fenty (D-Ward 4) is running for mayor. Vincent Gray (D-Ward 7), less than two years in office, is vying with Patterson to become council chairman. If Fenty and Gray are successful, special elections will be held next year to choose their replacements. The council could also take on another new face if A. Scott Bolden (D) takes the at-large seat of council member Phil Mendelson (D). In addition, at-large council member David Catania (I) and Ward 1 member Jim Graham (D) are on this year's ballots.

These contests alone should spark enough voter interest to produce a large turnout for the Sept. 12 primary and Nov. 7 general election. But more than politics should draw District voters to the polls this year. This next crop of D.C. elected leaders has a date with potential fiscal and social disasters.

A recent conversation with the council's finance committee chairman, Jack Evans (D-Ward 2), helped crystallize one of the issues. Evans observed that property taxes, the District's main source of local revenue, have helped keep the government flush with cash. But that bountiful flow is expected to level off in the next two or three years, he said (the same way the real estate boom hit a slide during the years Marion Barry was mayor). Meanwhile, city government spending continues on an upward trajectory (also just as it did during the Barry years). The question Evans raises is one District voters need to ponder as well: Will the city's new political leadership have the moxie and courage to stop the spending and revenue lines from crossing?

Politicians, of course, love to wrap themselves in the flag of fiscal responsibility. But actually closing the spending spigot is another matter.

Consider the city's budget. The three main areas of spending, Evans points out, are public safety (police, fire and emergency services, and corrections), public education and human services. These are also the areas in which the District's elected leaders make most of their political hay. What happens when the good times stop rolling?

That is not a speculative question. Let's return to campaign 2006.

At a Tuesday night forum sponsored by Ward 3 and Ward 4 Democratic organizations for candidates seeking council chairman and at-large seats, a member of the audience asked the rivals to explain how they would, if elected, fund their top three legislative priorities without creating a budget deficit.

Council chairman candidates Gray and Patterson and at-large adversaries Bolden and Mendelson were on the stage. As moderator, I was dazzled by their footwork. Each spoke passionately about his or her priorities (education, public safety and affordable housing came out on top), but they all finessed the question of the looming budget crunch and the unavoidable need to either rein in expenditures or raise taxes.

Of course, candor is always in short supply on the campaign trail. But the prospect of a fiscal quandary a few years down the road isn't fantasy. It's a harsh reality waiting for the next mayor and council.