Democrats Contour November Strategy

Dean has emphasized the need to appeal to the grass roots and to rebuild state parties in blue and red states. To that end, he has created what he calls the 50-state project and has deployed 175 DNC-funded organizers nationwide. Democratic state chairmen give the program rave reviews, not least because the DNC continues to hand out checks to help underwrite their operations. But some Democrats in Washington fear the strategy is financing operations in states the Democrats cannot win in 2008, and that that could shortchange some targeted races in 2006. These differences permeate attitudes about Dean's stewardship.

For all the problems Bush and has team have encountered in the past 15 months, Democratic strategists hold the Bush operation in high regard when it comes to campaign tactics. "The Republicans are good at acquiring power," strategist Mike Stratton said. "They're even better at maintaining power. I think they are going to rally up here, particularly financially, and they'll be willing to throw anything in, including the kitchen sink, to win these elections. We just can't take this wind at our backs for granted."

Others say the Republicans have exploited the weaknesses of Democratic candidates. Former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb, for example, blamed the Democrats for being soft in the face of aggressive GOP campaign tactics. "We have not demonstrated the mental toughness up to this point -- and smarts," he said.

Still, some party leaders believe Republican advantages in running campaigns has begun to erode with Bush's declining poll numbers. In 2002, for example, Georgia was at ground zero in demonstrating the power of GOP campaign techniques, as an unexpected surge of Republican voters defeated both then-Sen. Max Cleland and then-Gov. Roy Barnes. In 2004, the Republican turnout operation proved superior once again in many battlegrounds.

Now Kahn sees hope for Democrats. In past elections, the appeal of Bush as messenger helped motivate grass-roots Republicans, and party mechanics did the rest to get them to the polls. "They had the ultimate messenger," he said. "Well, I don't think that works right now -- not even in Georgia. The national meltdown has found its way to Georgia. Now we have to pick up the ball and run with it."

But if Bush's strength has been diminished, the Democrats have no comparable leader to galvanize the party for the midterm elections. The burden this year falls heaviest on Dean, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), but all three have detractors.

Many Democrats say that in a midterm election, a singular party leader is not crucial, that individual candidates across the country can carry the party's message. But Fowler pointed to the Republican success in 1994, when the GOP captured the House and Senate in a year when the voters turned against then-President Bill Clinton, to underscore one distinction with the Democrats this year.

"The difference between now and '94 is we don't have a Newt Gingrich. It's just that simple," he said in reference to the year Republicans captured control of Congress. "But if we find ourselves a message, we could do [to Republicans] almost what they did to us in '94."

Elaine Kamarck, a longtime party strategist, said Democrats should have a big year this year regardless of whether their campaigns are letter-perfect. "I think they are better still than we are in campaign politics," she said in reference to Republicans. "But I think that when you've been an incumbent for so long, reality trumps politics. By this time, every mess in the world or here is their mess, without anybody's question, and I don't think you can get out of that with politics."

For now, that remains the Democrats' default strategy for November.