By Peter Whoriskey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, April 24, 2006
NEW ORLEANS, April 23 -- Incumbent C. Ray Nagin and rival Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu kicked off their mayoral runoff campaigns by urging voters and the news media to leave race out of the historic election here, calling in campaign stops for unity in the face of daunting rebuilding tasks after Hurricane Katrina.
But results in the first round of balloting suggest it may be difficult to do so.
The electorate in Saturday's election split along stark racial lines over Nagin, who dominated in the city's black neighborhoods of New Orleans East and the Lower Ninth Ward but struggled virtually everywhere else, according to an analysis by GCR & Associates, a consulting firm working on the election for the secretary of state's office.
Landrieu, in contrast to Nagin and most of the other candidates in Saturday's contest, scored relatively well among black and white voters, as expected, and he has used his broad appeal as a campaign message.
Nagin won 66 percent of African American votes, according to preliminary figures from GCR & Associates, winning by large margins in majority-black precincts.
"Where he dominated, he really dominated," said Greg Rigamer of GCR & Associates.
Landrieu won 23 percent of African American votes and about the same percentage of white votes, the GCR figures showed.
"I am most proud of the strong coalition that we built -- with balanced support in the African American, white, Hispanic and Vietnamese community," Landrieu said Sunday. "I am the only candidate with this kind of coalition that will be needed to govern and move this city forward."
The runoff is scheduled for May 20. In a field of 22 candidates, Nagin won 38 percent (41,489 votes), and Landrieu 29 percent (31,499).
If elected, Landrieu would be the city's first white mayor since 1978, when his father, Moon, left office.
Saturday's vote also revealed the degree to which Katrina's diaspora has shrunk New Orleans's populace and shifted the racial balance.
In the 2002 election, African Americans cast 62 percent of about 135,000 votes. On Saturday, African Americans cast 52 percent of about 108,000 votes, Rigamer's figures showed. The fact that the number of voters this time was 80 percent of the voters from the last mayoral election -- even though the city is half-empty -- was greeted as good news by some.
"I thought it was a great sign for our city," Rigamer said. "People came in to vote."
Nagin, some observers believe, is loath to play racial politics, partly by nature and particularly because he has been targeted by both sides. In his 2002 race and during his first term, some prominent black political advocates tagged Nagin as "too white"; strong support from white voters enabled him to win.
Now that Nagin is facing off against a white candidate, his white support appears to have evaporated even as black voters have embraced him. Now, City Council President Oliver M. Thomas Jr. has joked, "He's too black."
"Neither one of these candidates wants to play a race card. They're just not that type," said Susan E. Howell, a pollster and political scientist at the University of New Orleans.
To win, Nagin must make inroads with white voters or expand the black voter turnout. More black voters might be motivated to turn out if the election were perceived as an African American cause, Howell said.
"Nagin himself would rather not make overt racial appeals and make this about black control of the city," Howell said. "But there will be others who will do that for him -- maybe against his will."
With the city's future at stake, many have lamented the racial antagonisms that emerged in the election, overshadowing such questions as, What neighborhoods will receive city services? Is the city going broke? What should happen to homes that are left abandoned more than a year after the storm? Which candidate can best draw the federal and state money needed to repair the levees and rebuild?
Now that the field has been winnowed to two, it may be easier for Nagin and Landrieu to confront and differentiate one another on these practical issues.
But in conversations with dozens of voters, it was clear that race would play a role, particularly as voters view Nagin's tenure. Several black voters defended him against charges that he failed in the storm or that his remarks that God wanted the city to remain "chocolate" revealed his divisive side.
"I think he did pretty good considering what happened -- it was like a Category 5 storm surge," said Todd McNeil, 37, an emergency medical worker from New Orleans East.
As for the "chocolate city" remarks, McNeil said: "Nagin kind of felt that people were trying to take our property and keep us from rebuilding. He was trying to make a statement to those people."
McNeil's wife, Vonder, 40, said she thought his remarks were "very wrong."
"If I were of another race, I would feel discriminated against," she said.
Still, she said, she voted for Nagin because she believes it would be inefficient to change city administrations in the midst of the rebuilding.
On the other side of the Nagin divide were people such as Betty Caraway, a housewife from Uptown. She and her husband, a retired lawyer, supported Nagin in his first election. They voted for Ron Forman, chief executive of the Audubon Nature Institute, on Saturday, but seem unlikely to cross over to Nagin again.
She credited Nagin with doing a good job until the storm. "He keeps saying he wants everyone to come back, but I just was never sure if he meant white people," she said.
As the bogged-down recovery enters its ninth month, she and others want to see more neighborhoods restored, more businesses return and more life in the city.
"We're getting into the draggy part" of the recovery, she said. "We want someone to inspire us."
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