Burns May Be Bouncing Back

When he heard last fall that Burns had taken money from and done favors for Abramoff, Hill said he laughed out loud. "They all do it," he said. "They all take the money."

There is a perception among political analysts, based on recent polls, that sizable numbers of Republicans, independents and conservative Democrats have swallowed the disturbing news about Burns and Abramoff, but no longer have indigestion.

"When scandal hits, voters do grade politicians on a curve," said Scott Rasmussen, whose national polling firm has done monthly polls this year on the Senate race here. He says that Burns's favorable ratings pushed back up to 50 percent in mid-April, and his unfavorable ratings fell to 47 percent, reversing the pattern of previous polls.

"We have to be a little bit careful that scandal is going to shock people," he said.

There is no doubt, however, that the Abramoff scandal has knocked Burns off the silky path to reelection he was on early last fall, when he had double-digit leads over likely Democratic challengers.

"Absolutely, the Burns campaign is in trouble because of what happened," said Craig Harris, a professor of political science at Montana State University in Billings, where for 15 years he has run a statewide political poll.

"The key to Burns's survival is that there be nothing new out of the Justice Department," Harris said. "Then all this will be old news. But if there are indictments of staffers, then it could be all over for Burns."

A federal task force investigating congressional corruption is looking into actions by Burns and members of his staff, according to people involved in the probe. In the absence of more bad news, Harris said, many Montanans may be inclined to give Burns a wink and a nod, in part, because he is skilled at bringing home federal dollars and his office has a reputation for good constituent relations.

"At some point in Montana, there is a dislike of outsiders and the national press telling us what to think," Harris said. "The thinking is he is a son of a gun, but he is our son of a gun and he can bring home the bacon."

The two leading Democrats challenging Burns disagree, saying that he has brought disgrace to the Senate, embarrassed Montana and lost touch with voters.

"The events that have been reported involving Burns and his staff and Jack Abramoff make this Montana Senate seat the poster child for everything that is wrong in Washington," said John Morrison, who is serving his second term as Montana auditor.

Morrison, 44, is the Democratic candidate for senator with the highest statewide name recognition and the most campaign money. He also has a narrow lead over Burns in recent polls.