WTO Chief Pushes Officials for June Agreement

Gloom about prospects for a global trade agreement has been deepening by the day, with a major negotiating deadline passing this week and the United States changing its trade representative. But the head of the World Trade Organization, far from giving up, is laying out new plans for completing a deal this year -- while warning that it is probably the last good chance for a long time.

Pascal Lamy, the WTO's director-general, said yesterday that negotiators must reach agreement by mid-June on broad parameters for reductions in tariffs and farm subsidies. Those cuts are at the heart of the ongoing talks, known as the Doha round, which were launched in 2001 with the lofty goal of spreading the benefits of global trade to developing nations. Then negotiators must forge another accord in July on reducing barriers to services and strike a final pact by the end of the year, Lamy said.

Admonishing the WTO's 149 member nations about meeting that schedule, Lamy said, "It may be that waiting is the definite killer of the round." That is because a final deal must be struck in time for President Bush to submit it to Congress under the five-year authority Bush got in 2002 to negotiate trade agreements -- and renewal or extension of that authority would be politically difficult for the White House.

Lamy's new plan, outlined in a conference call with a group of reporters from several nations, is an attempt to revive the talks after a series of events that analysts widely interpreted as signaling doom for a breakthrough anytime soon. Negotiators have been deadlocked for months, with many countries blaming the European Union's resistance to further opening its markets to foreign farm goods. Recent developments have intensified fears among free-trade advocates that the round is in danger of indefinite delay or collapse, which could deal a serious blow to the WTO's status as the defender of the 60-year-old multilateral trading system.

Last week, Rob Portman, the U.S. trade representative, was nominated for a new job as President Bush's budget director. Then came the admission by negotiators at WTO headquarters in Geneva that there would be no agreement on the broad parameters for tariff and subsidy reductions by the end of April, a deadline the member nations set late last year after missing it twice before.

Now Lamy is effectively resetting that deadline for mid-June. With tongue only partly in cheek, he warned that trade ministers would not be able to reach a deal during the final stages of the World Cup soccer championships, which run from June 9 to July 9.

"The general conclusion in Geneva is, maybe they could negotiate during the round of 16, maybe during the round of eight, but you know the semifinals become a real red zone; there's no way that ministers will be able to negotiate valuably in that zone," he said.

More seriously, Lamy said, the mid-June deadline should be taken to heart because so much time is required for haggling over final numbers, services and other issues during the year's remaining months.

He rejected suggestions that the round's completion be put off this year because of elections looming in major countries, including the United States and France, which make it difficult for negotiators to offer concessions. The most recent such assertion came from Christine Lagarde, France's trade minister, who said in an interview published yesterday in the International Herald Tribune that negotiators should "think it through a bit harder and a bit longer rather than jump in a direction that was planned in 2001."

Although more time is obviously needed, Lamy said, "it's a question of days and weeks, not months and years." He cited the long lead times required to submit a finalized deal to Congress before the expiration of Bush's negotiating authority in June 2007.

A few glimmers of hope for the round have also materialized recently. Portman told reporters Tuesday that he and his deputy and designated successor, Susan C. Schwab, will head to Geneva next week to "talk honestly about our differences and attempt to bridge those differences." Asked whether Washington might modify some of its positions, in particular its proposal to slash farm subsidies and tariffs, he said, "Our proposal is not a take-it-or-leave-it approach."

Peter Mandelson, the E.U. trade commissioner, yesterday seized on Portman's comment as "an important advance," even though U.S. officials said it was a long-standing U.S. position. "The E.U. will be prepared to further enhance our current agricultural offer," Mandelson told reporters, but only if big developing countries such as Brazil and India agree to open their markets to manufactured goods.

But the international aid agency Oxfam, which serves as an influential adviser to many poor countries, poured cold water on the talks. In a report to be released today, Oxfam said chances are so slim for a far-reaching trade deal benefiting the poor that "developing countries would be better off delaying an agreement rather than rushing to sign a bad deal this year."