German Leader Rides a Wave Of Popularity Into Washington

Avoiding a Major Misstep Is Key to Merkel's Support

BERLIN, April 28 -- Six months ago, Chancellor Angela Merkel was battling for her political survival. Her party was forced to share power after a dismal campaign in which it squandered a double-digit lead in the polls, as voters expressed doubts about her policies and her lack of charisma.

Next week, when she arrives in Washington to meet with President Bush, Merkel will be greeted as perhaps the most popular politician in Europe. Her approval ratings in opinion polls top 80 percent, a sharp turnabout from September, when her Christian Democrats won only 35 percent of the vote in national elections.

Merkel's fortunes have risen in part because of a slight uptick in the German economy, which has been afflicted by record-high unemployment and six years of weak growth. She's also distinguished herself on the diplomatic front; this will be her second trip to Washington to see Bush, and she has successfully mediated some thorny disputes within the European Union.

But pollsters and analysts said the biggest reason Merkel has won favor with voters is she has avoided the kind of political missteps that marred her campaign last year, surpassing the low expectations that many Germans had for her rule.

"She hasn't made any mistakes, and a lot of people had expected her to do so because they underestimated her," said Rainer-Olaf Schultze, a political science professor at the University of Augsburg. "She's taken a very realistic approach to governing. She's also a very shrewd politician in terms of sensing changes in attitude in the electorate."

During the campaign, Merkel scared many voters by vowing to shake up the German welfare state model that many economists blame for dampening growth and contributing to high unemployment. She also promised to raise the national sales tax rate from 16 percent to 19 percent, an idea that didn't win her much applause on the stump.

Her strategy nearly backfired when the Christian Democrats lost a large lead during the campaign and barely captured a plurality on election day. Since then, she's changed her tack and tried to assuage voters that any policy changes will be modest and gradual. Her cabinet, for instance, has agreed to raise the retirement age from 65 to 67, but the extension won't fully take effect until 2029.

"There will not be a big bang in Germany which will suddenly move us on, but we need to move fast and decisively every day even if we do not see the fruits of our labors for three or four years," Merkel told the German Banking Congress in a speech Tuesday in Berlin. "Change is so often associated in Germany with a turn for the worse. People need to see it as an opportunity as well."

Her predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder, spent years tinkering with the welfare system, to the dismay of millions of Germans. Now the public seems generally pleased with the toned-down approach. A poll released Friday by the television network ZDF put Merkel's job approval rating at 83 percent, according to a survey of 1,200 voters.

Germany's print media have jumped on the bandwagon as well. The country's papers are notorious for trashing politicians for their personal foibles. During the campaign, newspapers relentlessly made fun of Merkel's dowdy appearance, but criticisms of the chancellor's looks have largely ceased. In fact, last week German media jumped to her defense when she got the royal treatment from a British tabloid. The Sun published a surreptitious photo of her bare bottom, exposed as she changed out of her swimsuit during a Mediterranean vacation. ("I'm Big in the Bumdestag," snickered the headline, in a play on the German name for the lower house of Parliament, Bundestag.) In response, Bild, the German daily that sells millions of papers by making fun of fat politicians and printing photos of topless women, declared that it was appalled by the lack of respect. "Brits Lampoon Our Chancellor," the paper thundered. "Where does this hatred come from?"

Economic indicators are also improving. In a report released Thursday, Germany's six leading economic institutes predicted the economy would expand by 1.8 percent in 2006, up from previous forecasts of 1.2 percent. Although that figure is low by historic standards, it would be the fastest rate since 2000.

Merkel has also earned plaudits for forming a stable government. Because of their weak showing in the election, the Christian Democrats were forced to set aside differences with their usual rivals, the Social Democrats, and form what Germans refer to as "a grand coalition" with that party. While many analysts had predicted the arrangement would yield political gridlock and early elections, Merkel has succeeded in forging a coherent legislative program.

With her rivals now inside the tent, she has also benefited politically from the lack of a strong opposition. Furthermore, the Social Democrats, with their own problems, have been led by three party chiefs since fall.

Meanwhile, Merkel has improved her standing even among groups that were most skeptical of her. During the campaign, she Merkel received low marks from women and from voters in the formerly communist portion half of the country, even though she is both the first woman and the first easterner to serve as chancellor. Today, surveys show that she's more popular among women than men and has shored up her support in the east as well, said Reinhard Schlinkert, chairman of the polling firm Infratest-Dimap.

Although Merkel has benefited from good economic news, Schlinkert said her job approval ratings were higher at the start of 2006, when economic data were worse than today. "It's mostly personality," he said. "People are surprised by the way she has handled the tough job as chancellor and running the grand coalition. And people feel that she's accepted internationally as well."

Analysts said popular support for Merkel could dry up just as quickly if she is unable to solve some looming challenges. Her government has said it will attempt this year to fix the national health insurance system, which is bleeding red ink. The sales tax increase is due to take effect in 2007, which economists say could dry up consumer spending.

"We realize we still have a lot to do," Merkel said at the bankers' conference. "We're certainly not going to rest on our laurels."