Md. GOP Victories Could Hold Big Payoffs

A Few Senate Races Key in Veto Power

Philip C. Jimeno is hardly a household name. But when the veteran Democratic senator from Anne Arundel County's working-class suburbs announces tomorrow his plans to retire, he will be throwing open a pivotal seat in the battle to realign Maryland.

Jimeno's district, with its conservative social compass and a history of openness to Republican candidates, has been viewed as a key target of Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. and other GOP leaders as they seek to gain five state Senate seats this year.

Grabbing that seat, and just a few others, could pay huge dividends. Even small gains in the 47-member chamber would not only give Republicans enough clout to sustain a filibuster but could also enable them -- if voting as a bloc -- to prevent the legislature from overriding the governor's veto.

"The difference would be night and day," said John Kane, chairman of the Maryland Republican Party. "Half the junk legislation you see now would never survive."

To achieve their goal, Republicans are banking on demographic changes and voting trends that they believe point to a slow but persistent shift in voter attitudes. They believe the state is turning from "blue" to "purple" on the political map, fueled by changes in the state's populous blue-collar suburbs and fast-growing exurbs.

Maryland Republicans held six Senate seats in 1983. That grew to nine seats in 1991. Then 15 in 1999. They now hold 14.

Maryland Democratic Party Chairman Terry Lierman has played down the prospects of GOP gains, particularly in a year when President Bush's unpopularity is pulling down other Republicans. Lierman predicted pickups for Democrats in the Senate and House of Delegates and added: "It's almost irrelevant, because Ehrlich's not going to be governor."

Over the past four years, Democratic strength in both chambers has prevented Ehrlich, the first Republican governor in a generation, from sustaining vetoes on 37 bills during his term. That compares with one veto override apiece for the two prior Maryland governors, both Democrats.

The impact of the overrides cannot be understated, Ehrlich said. Had the GOP numbers been slightly greater, the minimum wage in Maryland might still be $5.15 an hour instead of $6.15. Montgomery County might not have been permitted to install speed cameras.

Voters might not have been allowed to cast ballots early in this year's election. And a high-profile bill seeking to make Wal-Mart improve its employee health benefits almost certainly would not have become law.

If even one current Democratic seat had been in Republican hands, it's possible that legislation authorizing state funding for stem cell research would have stalled another year. After a five-hour filibuster, Democrats mustered the bare number of votes needed to cut off debate on that issue.

Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Calvert) acknowledged that there are seats the party will have to fight hard to retain, including the one that Jimeno has held for 20 years, with trends that show voters in his district favoring GOP candidates.