Md. GOP Victories Could Hold Big Payoffs

It's possible, Miller said, that Republicans could gain strength in his chamber. "But my expectation is that it would be minimal."

If there are any gains, they will be credited largely to Ehrlich, who in 2002 became the state's first Republican governor in 36 years. For weeks, Ehrlich has been telegraphing his plans to push hard for gains in the General Assembly.

In a speech to business leaders last week, Ehrlich made clear that strengthening his veto powers would carry tremendous significance for the party as it strives to become relevant in the capital, where, as the governor put it, the GOP has spent years "sitting in the bleachers throwing rocks."

Measures such as the minimum-wage increase, the so-called Wal-Mart bill and Montgomery's speed cameras legislation all passed over Ehrlich's objection with no more than three votes to spare in the Senate, as some conservative Democrats sided with most of the chamber's 14 Republicans.

The lopsided Democratic majority in the House has also vexed Ehrlich, particularly last year, when delegates mustered the bare minimum of votes needed to override Ehrlich's veto of a bill providing relief to doctors facing escalating medical malpractice bills. Although the GOP is targeting House races, it is in the Senate where just a few seats could close the gap in a meaningful way.

Recent polling has offered some reason to believe that GOP hopes for even small gains in the legislature could be ambitious, Miller said.

Several polls also have shown either Democratic candidate, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley or Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan, beating Ehrlich in the fall.

But members of both parties caution that it is early: Ehrlich is expected to amass upwards of $20 million for his campaign and has hinted that he intends to direct some party resources beyond his race and into key legislative battles in counties such as Anne Arundel and St. Mary's, where Democratic registration has eroded in the past four years.

The electorate's mood about state and national candidates could be a key factor in the race for Jimeno's seat. His northern Anne Arundel district, much of it a jagged peninsula stretching between the Patapsco and Magothy rivers, has a majority of registered Democrats. Even so, Ehrlich won more than 70 percent of the vote there in 2002 -- a stronger showing than in any other district represented by a Democratic senator.

Erik Robey, who represents the district on the GOP central committee, said an intensive recruiting effort yielded four strong candidates for the seat, including several who have shown unusual fundraising strength

"The Democrats tend to vote for Republicans here," Robey said. "I really think it's a district that could see some change."

Two of the three delegates who share Jimeno's district are Republicans.

Jimeno said he believes that the GOP has always thought it could take his seat but has oversimplified voter attitudes in a region where labor's pull clashes with socially conservative values.

Another among the targeted Democrats is Sen. Roy P. Dyson (St. Mary's), whose Southern Maryland district Ehrlich carried in 2002. Dyson has drawn an established GOP opponent, Thomas F. McKay, chairman of St. Mary's County Commissioners.

Dyson, who has been a fixture in the district for decades, said he is taking nothing for granted this year and running "a very hard, door-to-door campaign." But Dyson said he believes the mood in his district is very different from what it was four years ago when Ehrlich defeated then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

Dyson's district office offers testament to his longevity -- and the political realities of his district. Photos on display include one of Dyson, from his days as a U.S. congressman, standing alongside President George H.W. Bush, a Republican.

This is the second in a series of occasional articles planned throughout the 2006 election season exploring Maryland's changing electorate.