By Matthew Mosk and John Wagner
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, April 30, 2006; A01
Philip C. Jimeno is hardly a household name. But when the veteran Democratic senator from Anne Arundel County's working-class suburbs announces tomorrow his plans to retire, he will be throwing open a pivotal seat in the battle to realign Maryland.
Jimeno's district, with its conservative social compass and a history of openness to Republican candidates, has been viewed as a key target of Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. and other GOP leaders as they seek to gain five state Senate seats this year.
Grabbing that seat, and just a few others, could pay huge dividends. Even small gains in the 47-member chamber would not only give Republicans enough clout to sustain a filibuster but could also enable them -- if voting as a bloc -- to prevent the legislature from overriding the governor's veto.
"The difference would be night and day," said John Kane, chairman of the Maryland Republican Party. "Half the junk legislation you see now would never survive."
To achieve their goal, Republicans are banking on demographic changes and voting trends that they believe point to a slow but persistent shift in voter attitudes. They believe the state is turning from "blue" to "purple" on the political map, fueled by changes in the state's populous blue-collar suburbs and fast-growing exurbs.
Maryland Republicans held six Senate seats in 1983. That grew to nine seats in 1991. Then 15 in 1999. They now hold 14.
Maryland Democratic Party Chairman Terry Lierman has played down the prospects of GOP gains, particularly in a year when President Bush's unpopularity is pulling down other Republicans. Lierman predicted pickups for Democrats in the Senate and House of Delegates and added: "It's almost irrelevant, because Ehrlich's not going to be governor."
Over the past four years, Democratic strength in both chambers has prevented Ehrlich, the first Republican governor in a generation, from sustaining vetoes on 37 bills during his term. That compares with one veto override apiece for the two prior Maryland governors, both Democrats.
The impact of the overrides cannot be understated, Ehrlich said. Had the GOP numbers been slightly greater, the minimum wage in Maryland might still be $5.15 an hour instead of $6.15. Montgomery County might not have been permitted to install speed cameras.
Voters might not have been allowed to cast ballots early in this year's election. And a high-profile bill seeking to make Wal-Mart improve its employee health benefits almost certainly would not have become law.
If even one current Democratic seat had been in Republican hands, it's possible that legislation authorizing state funding for stem cell research would have stalled another year. After a five-hour filibuster, Democrats mustered the bare number of votes needed to cut off debate on that issue.
Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Calvert) acknowledged that there are seats the party will have to fight hard to retain, including the one that Jimeno has held for 20 years, with trends that show voters in his district favoring GOP candidates.
It's possible, Miller said, that Republicans could gain strength in his chamber. "But my expectation is that it would be minimal."
If there are any gains, they will be credited largely to Ehrlich, who in 2002 became the state's first Republican governor in 36 years. For weeks, Ehrlich has been telegraphing his plans to push hard for gains in the General Assembly.
In a speech to business leaders last week, Ehrlich made clear that strengthening his veto powers would carry tremendous significance for the party as it strives to become relevant in the capital, where, as the governor put it, the GOP has spent years "sitting in the bleachers throwing rocks."
Measures such as the minimum-wage increase, the so-called Wal-Mart bill and Montgomery's speed cameras legislation all passed over Ehrlich's objection with no more than three votes to spare in the Senate, as some conservative Democrats sided with most of the chamber's 14 Republicans.
The lopsided Democratic majority in the House has also vexed Ehrlich, particularly last year, when delegates mustered the bare minimum of votes needed to override Ehrlich's veto of a bill providing relief to doctors facing escalating medical malpractice bills. Although the GOP is targeting House races, it is in the Senate where just a few seats could close the gap in a meaningful way.
Recent polling has offered some reason to believe that GOP hopes for even small gains in the legislature could be ambitious, Miller said.
Several polls also have shown either Democratic candidate, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley or Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan, beating Ehrlich in the fall.
But members of both parties caution that it is early: Ehrlich is expected to amass upwards of $20 million for his campaign and has hinted that he intends to direct some party resources beyond his race and into key legislative battles in counties such as Anne Arundel and St. Mary's, where Democratic registration has eroded in the past four years.
The electorate's mood about state and national candidates could be a key factor in the race for Jimeno's seat. His northern Anne Arundel district, much of it a jagged peninsula stretching between the Patapsco and Magothy rivers, has a majority of registered Democrats. Even so, Ehrlich won more than 70 percent of the vote there in 2002 -- a stronger showing than in any other district represented by a Democratic senator.
Erik Robey, who represents the district on the GOP central committee, said an intensive recruiting effort yielded four strong candidates for the seat, including several who have shown unusual fundraising strength
"The Democrats tend to vote for Republicans here," Robey said. "I really think it's a district that could see some change."
Two of the three delegates who share Jimeno's district are Republicans.
Jimeno said he believes that the GOP has always thought it could take his seat but has oversimplified voter attitudes in a region where labor's pull clashes with socially conservative values.
Another among the targeted Democrats is Sen. Roy P. Dyson (St. Mary's), whose Southern Maryland district Ehrlich carried in 2002. Dyson has drawn an established GOP opponent, Thomas F. McKay, chairman of St. Mary's County Commissioners.
Dyson, who has been a fixture in the district for decades, said he is taking nothing for granted this year and running "a very hard, door-to-door campaign." But Dyson said he believes the mood in his district is very different from what it was four years ago when Ehrlich defeated then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.
Dyson's district office offers testament to his longevity -- and the political realities of his district. Photos on display include one of Dyson, from his days as a U.S. congressman, standing alongside President George H.W. Bush, a Republican.
This is the second in a series of occasional articles planned throughout the 2006 election season exploring Maryland's changing electorate.
