U.S. Crafts Response on Iran

The analysts note that in the last year, Iran has suspended negotiations with European countries, has accelerated its nuclear program and has begun enriching uranium. It has adopted a much more belligerent tone and has significantly scaled back cooperation with inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

On Tuesday, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, told the Iranian Student News Agency that Iranian scientists have enriched uranium to 4.8 percent purity, up from 3.6 percent last month. Uranium needs to be enriched to more than 90 percent to make a bomb, and estimates differ widely about how far Iran is from that point, with some specialists saying only two years, and others saying more than 10.

Also on Tuesday, Iran's deputy chief for nuclear research and technology said that uranium deposits had been found in three new places in the center of the country. And the student news agency quoted a senior military official, Rear Adm. Mohammed Ibrahim Dehqani, as saying that if the U.S. causes problems, "Israel will be the first place that we will target."

Seyyed Ali Moujani, a senior official at the Iranian Embassy in Paris, told reporters that "we are not worried about more sanctions because we're already suffering from sanctions and embargos, and we managed to enrich uranium in a very tough situation thanks to a national effort."

Late last year, Iranian officials prepared for possible broader punitive steps by reportedly removing money from European banks, French military analyst Francois Heisbourg said. The real question, he said, is whether the United States is prepared for the possible backlash of sanctions against Iran -- specifically, higher oil prices.

"The only sanction available is to prevent the export of oil by Iran. That's the only serious one," he said. "But if Americans aren't happy with gas at $3 a gallon, will they be happy if prices are $6 a gallon?"

Burns said that sanctions against Iran's oil and gas industry currently are not under consideration because they would strike too hard at ordinary Iranians. The purpose of sanctions, he said, would be to target Iran's policies and its political leadership.

Heisbourg said that a military confrontation between the United States and Iran would have a devastating impact on U.S. influence in the Middle East and could bring on a feared "clash of civilizations" between Islamic and Christian countries -- a result he said Ahmadinejad may be angling for. Heisbourg, Kian-Thiebaut and others expressed doubt that such attacks would do more than slow Iran's nuclear program temporarily.

Lynch reported from the United Nations. Researcher Corrine Gavard in Paris contributed to this report.